'Excessive' hot front arrives Sunday. 100 degrees in the Twin Cities?

A 3-day heat wave is on the way. Excessive heat watch will likely be upgraded to a warning.

NOAA GFS upper air forecast
NOAA GFS upper air forecast between Friday and Monday.
NOAA via tropical tidbits

Here it comes, Minnesota.

A hot front blows into Minnesota Sunday. Southerly winds Saturday will begin the atmospheric process of pumping steamy, super-heated air into Minnesota by Sunday.

The loop at the top of this post shows the upper airflow and (temperature) anomalies compared to average around 18,000 feet above ground level. See how the amplified heat dome builds across the Upper Midwest over the weekend?

Looking at the ground-level weather maps, high temperatures will hit 100 degrees across western Minnesota both Sunday and Monday.

Create a More Connected Minnesota

MPR News is your trusted resource for the news you need. With your support, MPR News brings accessible, courageous journalism and authentic conversation to everyone - free of paywalls and barriers. Your gift makes a difference.

Forecast high temperatures Sunday
Forecast high temperatures Sunday.
NOAA

I’d say there’s a 50-50 chance that the Twin Cities hit 100 degrees sometime Monday afternoon. And if not, the upper 90s will be no bargain. You can see on the forecast high-temperature map below that the northern edge of the heat dome expands right over Minnesota and the Upper Midwest Monday.

Forecast high temperatures Monday
Forecast high temperatures Monday.
NOAA

The excessive heat watch for much of Minnesota will likely be upgraded to a warning by Saturday.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Carver-Scott-Dakota- Including the cities of Minneapolis, Blaine, St Paul, Chanhassen, Chaska, Victoria, Shakopee, and Hastings

512 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Dangerously hot conditions with heat index values up to 105 possible.

* WHERE...Scott, Carver, Ramsey, Anoka, Hennepin and Dakota Counties.

* WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through late Monday night.

* IMPACTS...Extreme heat and humidity will significantly increase the potential for heat related illnesses, particularly for those working or participating in outdoor activities.


Relief by Wednesday?

A coll front will push the worst of the heat dome south of Minnesota by next Wednesday. But it’s only moderate relief. Highs will still run above average. But 70s north and upper 80s for the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota will feel a lot better than Monday’s near 100-degree heat.

Forecast high temperatures Wednesday
Forecast high temperatures Wednesday.
NOAA

The medium-range forecast for the next 2 weeks favors warmer than average temperatures across most of the U.S. including Minnesota.

NOAA 8 to 14-day temperature outlook
NOAA 8 to 14-day temperature outlook.
NOAA

I think we’ll be racking up quite a few 90-degree days between now and the 4th of July.

Stay tuned, and stay cool, Minnesota!