Summery warmth; thunderstorm chance returns on Sunday
Warm week ahead
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Our high temps were a few degrees below normal the past few days, so many people were able to turn off their air conditioners and crack open their windows. Temps will be warming up above normal this weekend, and dew points will also be on the rise.
Temperature trends
Saturday highs are expected to reach the upper 80s across much of western Minnesota, plus parts of central Minnesota and most of the Twin Cities metro area. Our average Twin Cities high is 83 degrees this time of year. Southeastern Minnesota and parts of western Wisconsin will see mid 80s, with lower 80s in portions of northeastern Minnesota.
Southerly wind will allow dew points to rise to around 60 degrees this afternoon in the metro area and southeastern Minnesota, with stickier dewpoints in the low to mid 60s in parts of western Minnesota. Relatively comfortable dew points will remain over northeastern Minnesota Saturday afternoon.
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Sunday highs reach the lower 90s in southwestern Minnesota, with upper 80s to around 90 from west-central Minnesota through the Twin Cities and west-central Wisconsin:
Northeastern Minnesota and parts of southeastern Minnesota will have mainly lower and middle 80s.
Sunday afternoon dew points will be in the sticky 60s:
Back to forecast highs, Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach the mid 80s on Monday, then around 90 Tuesday and upper 90s Wednesday, followed by lower 90s Thursday and Friday.
It looks like warm temps will linger next weekend into the beginning of the following week. The NWS Climate Prediction Center shows a strong tendency for above-normal temps in the upper Midwest from August 4 through August 8:
Rain chances
A few scattered showers could develop in western and northern Minnesota Saturday night. Some forecast models show scattered showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm Sunday morning in those same locations.
Some areas of thunderstorms are expected to spread across Minnesota and western Wisconsin Sunday afternoon and evening. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential rain pattern from noon Sunday to 1 a.m. on Monday:
NOAA’s High Resolution Rapid-Refresh (HRRR) model shows more numerous thunderstorms during that same period:
Stay weather aware Sunday afternoon and evening. The NWS Storm Prediction Center shows a marginal risk (shaded dark green) of severe weather Sunday and Sunday night across much of Minnesota and parts of western Wisconsin:
Marginal risk means that an isolated severe thunderstorm is possible. The graphic and its thunderstorm timing info are provided by the Twin Cities NWS office. Our metro area thunderstorm chance appears to be mainly late Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening, with an isolated thunderstorm possible earlier in the afternoon.
You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the Minnesota Public Radio News network, and you can see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.
Programming note
You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.
