Warm Sunday; Shower/thunderstorm chances highest in the afternoon/evening
Chance of severe weather Sunday afternoon/evening
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Saturday was a good day to be on or near a lake.
Our Saturday high temp at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport was 88 degrees. That’s five degrees warmer than our average July 30 high in the Twin Cities. Much of Minnesota and western Wisconsin had highs in the 80s, and a few spots in west-central Minnesota, including Appleton, Wheaton and Fergus Falls, touched 90 degrees.
Warm high temps will be with us again on Sunday, with many spots reaching the upper 80s and some lower 90s in southwestern Minnesota:
I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 90 somewhere in the Twin Cities metro area Sunday afternoon.
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Dew points will be in the sticky 60s Sunday afternoon:
Back to forecast highs, Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach the lower 80s on Monday, followed by mid 90s Tuesday then lower 90s Wednesday, upper 80s Thursday and lower 90s on Friday.
It looks like warm temps will linger next weekend into the beginning of the following week. The NWS Climate Prediction Center shows a strong tendency for above-normal temps in the upper Midwest from August 5 through August 9:
Thunderstorm chances
A few spots in northern Minnesota and west central Minnesota could see passing shower or an isolated t-storm overnight Saturday night.
A few scattered showers and an isolated t-storm will be possible Sunday morning in roughly the northwestern half of Minnesota. A cool front and upper level disturbance are expected to generate a batch of showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening. The thunderstorm chance early Sunday afternoon is expected to be mainly in northern Minnesota and parts of central Minnesota, then scattered t-storms are possible anywhere in Minnesota and western Wisconsin later Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential rain pattern from noon Sunday to 11 p.m. Sunday:
NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid-Refresh (HRRR) model shows slightly different thunderstorm coverage during that same period:
You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the Minnesota Public Radio News network, and you can see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.
Severe weather outlook
The NWS Storm Prediction Center shows a slight risk (shaded yellow) of severe weather Sunday afternoon and evening for a substantial portion of central and southern Minnesota and part of west-central Wisconsin:
A marginal risk of severe weather (dark green) covers most of the remainder of Minnesota and much of western Wisconsin.
Slight risk means that scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, while marginal risk means that an isolated severe thunderstorm is possible:
The Storm Prediction Center will update the severe weather outlook later tonight and on Sunday.
Weather nugget
Through Friday, the July rainfall total at MSP airport was running 2.64 inches below normal. Since June 1, rainfall at MSP airport is 6.09 inches below normal.
