Tracking spotty thunderstorm chances this week

Overall storm coverage looks low, but locally heavy rainfall is possible.

NOAA NAM 3 km model
NOAA NAM 3 km model through 7 pm Thursday.
NOAA via tropical tidbits

It’s truly a hit-or-miss rainfall forecast across Minnesota this week.

A combination of weak weather features and limited moisture will produce a few clusters of showers and thunderstorms. But overall coverage looks scattered at best.

The best chance for storms Tuesday favors northern Minnesota. As of this post Tuesday afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms are drifting east across northern Minnesota.

NOAA’s NAM 3 km resolution model continues the theme of spotty rainfall coverage. Note the isolated pop-up showers with coverage drifting slowly southward through Wednesday into Thursday.

NOAA NAM 3 km model
NOAA NAM 3 km model through 7 pm Thursday.
NOAA via tropical tidbits

Rain chances for the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota will be highest Thursday and Friday. The best chance for getting an inch of rain or more favors the northern half of Minnesota this week.

European model (ECMWF) rainfall forecast
European model (ECMWF) rainfall forecast through Friday.
ECMWF via pivotal weather

High temperatures this week will run near or slightly below average for mid-August. Highs will top out around 80 in the Twin Cities Wednesday with mostly 70s up north.

Forecast high temperatures Wednesday
Forecast high temperatures Wednesday.
NOAA

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