Gradually increasing shower coverage through Friday

Spotty local downpours could drop an inch of rainfall.

NOAA WRF model
NOAA WRF model between 5 pm Wednesday and 7 am Friday.
NOAA via tropical tidbits

Doppler radars across our region will be tracking scattered rains through Friday.

A slow-moving and rather weak late-summer weather system is spinning through Minnesota. The result is scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. Overall storm coverage will be spotty through tonight, but an increase in coverage is likely Thursday and Friday.

NOAA’s NWRF model shows the chaotic coverage of random cells swirling around the weak low-pressure system into Friday morning. The highest rainfall chances for the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota are Thursday and Friday. The forecast model loop at the top of this post runs between 5 p.m. Wednesday and 7 a.m. Friday.

Severe weather is unlikely with this system. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center includes much of Minnesota in general thunderstorm chances but no severe weather risk areas into Friday.

An inch of rain?

Forecast models paint some locally heavy downpours with a few of the cells through Friday. The Europen model paints widespread .50” to 1” rainfall totals, with local 2” rainfall pockets.

European model (ECMWF) precipitation output
European model (ECMWF) precipitation output through Saturday.
ECMWF via pivotal weather

The Duluth area picked up over an inch of rainfall Tuesday night.

We’ll have many dry hours to enjoy through Saturday, but expect a few hours of rain and possible thunder with some small hail possible in stronger cells. Sunday looks like the sunnier day of the weekend at this point.

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