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Wildfire season is nearing peak intensity

Hundreds of wildfires are currently actively burning from California through the northern Rockies. The fires are belching out massive smoke plumes that are rising several thousand feet above ground level. 

The mid-level wind flow between 5,000 and 15,000 feet is generally blowing from west to east across the northern U.S. That means the smoke plumes have a relatively straight path into the Upper Midwest this week. 

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s GeoColor satellite image at the top of this post shows widespread smoke plumes aloft in the Dakotas seeping into Minnesota. 

The vertically integrated smoke forecast product from NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model shows thicker smoke plumes likely drifting over Minnesota overnight through Wednesday. 

 at ground level are mostly good across Minnesota Tuesday. 

But a cool front in northern Minnesota Wednesday could force some of that smoke down to ground level. The Minnesota Pollution Control Agency expects air quality to reach moderate (yellow) levels across much of northern Minnesota Wednesday.

Stronger southerly breezes Thursday should blow most of the low-level smoke northward, away from much of Minnesota.

Here’s the three-day air quality forecast for the greater Twin Cities area. 

Here’s more detail on Minnesota’s air quality forecast from the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency. 

Wildfire season in the west still has plenty of time to run into this fall. 

Climate change has extended both the seasonality and severity of wildfires in the western U.S., so the historical definition of wildfire season in the western U.S. has expanded in recent decades as western forests are subjected to a hotter and drier climate.

I expect more possible smoke episodes above Minnesota in the coming weeks. If meteorological conditions near the surface are right, some of that smoke could reach ground level where we breathe. 

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Paul Huttner

Author

While air quality readings at ground level are mostly good across Minnesota on Tuesday, a cool front in northern Minnesota Wednesday could force some of that smoke down to ground level.

Heavier western wildfire smoke blows in Wednesday; air quality may dip

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