Another wintry storm Friday

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Get ready for another soaking in northeast Minnesota. 

A slow-moving weather system will crank off a few rounds of rain and thunder starting Thursday. NOAA’s NAM 3 km model shows scattered rain and thunder cells developing across north-central Minnesota Thursday morning. The coverage and intensity of thunderstorms ramps up Thursday evening across northern Minnesota. The loop below runs between 7 am and 10 pm Thursday.

Many forecast models are cranking out multi-inch rainfall totals for northeast Minnesota through the upcoming weekend. The Europen model precipitation output through Sunday cranks out an inch or more along and north of a Brainerd to Duluth line. Rainfall looks widely scattered in southern Minnesota and will likely produce much less rain for the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota. 

Flash flooding is a risk in northeast Minnesota Thursday and into the weekend. The Duluth NWS office highlights the heavy rainfall threat, with some totals of 4 to 6-inch rainfall totals  possible in Minnesota’s Arrowhead region. (image at top of post)

It’s been cool up north with temperatures in the 60s this week. But summer-like temperatures in the 70s and 80s will linger across much of central and southern Minnesota through next Tuesday. Weekend highs will be near 80 degrees in the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota.

The European model is still cranking out highs in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees across southern Minnesota next Tuesday. 

The Autumnal Equinox arrives next Thursday, September 22 at 8:03 pm CDT. The weather maps may be paying attention. 

It’s still too early for high confidence here, but NOAA’s GFS model suggests a cold front that would shove the 80s away to the southeast, and blow in temperatures in the 50s and lower 60s next Thursday into Friday.

If so, we could feel the first real warning shot of fall-like temperatures for Minnesota late next week. Let’s see if this chilly notion survives the next few forecast model runs as we head toward the weekend. Seasonal change of colors on the weather maps? Preview of coming attractions. 

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Paul Huttner

Author

Heavy rainfall is likely across parts of northeast Minnesota this week. 

Duluth National Weather Service

NOAA via tropical tidbits

European model (ECMWF) precipitation output

ECMWF via pivotal weather

NOAA

European model (ECMWF) temperature forecast 

Heavy rainfall potential for northeast Minnesota; fall chill in sight?

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