Tuesday feels like July; fall chill blows in Wednesday

Temps hit 90 degrees in SW Minnesota Tuesday

Temperatures Tuesday afternoon
Heat index values Tuesday afternoon.
Oklahoma Mesonet

One more day of summer. Or at least summerlike weather. Temperatures and heat index values Tuesday afternoon reached the 90-degree mark in southwestern Minnesota.

On the heat index map at the top of this post, you can see the depth of the tropical September heat dome pushing all the way north into Minnesota from the Gulf of Mexico. As of this post the Twin Cities is already at 86 degrees. That’s above average — for mid-July.

Twin Cities temperatures and dew point
Twin Cities temperatures and dew point
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, via Iowa Emergency Management

Tuesday’s tropical dew point is near 70 degrees in the Twin Cities.

September summer

So far, September is running a remarkable 4.3 degrees warmer than average in the Twin Cities area. Ten of 20 days this month produced highs in the 80s. It’s basically like summer hasn’t ended yet.

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We’re also running a very concerning 7 inches below average precipitation so far this year in the Twin Cities. Minnehaha Falls is dry. Severe drought indeed.

Temperature shock ahead

The season’s strongest cold front blows into Minnesota Wednesday. It’s overdue.

The front will come through most of Minnesota dry Tuesday night. A few cells look likely to blow up across western Wisconsin where there is a slight risk for severe storms Tuesday evening.

Look for gusty northwest winds to 30 mph and sharply colder temperatures Wednesday into Thursday.

Highs by Thursday will struggle to reach 60 degrees in the Twin Cities with 50s up north. Where did I put that jacket last April?

Forecast high temperatures Thursday
Forecast high temperatures Thursday

Overnight lows by Friday morning will remind us that it’s late September. Lows will dip into the 30s up north, with 40s around the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota.

Forecast low temperatures Thursday morning
Forecast low temperatures Friday morning

From AC to heat in 36 hours?

Welcome to Minnesota.

Temperatures will recover as we move into the weekend. Highs in the 70s return to southern Minnesota Saturday, with 60s likely Sunday.

Forecast high temperatures Saturday
Forecast high temperatures Saturday

The forecast models I trust suggest highs back into the 70s next week for southern Minnesota, with another shot at 80 degrees quite possible before we close out September. So plenty of pleasant weather days are still ahead.

But we need rain.

Stay tuned.