Heat index values climb as high as 110 degrees Monday

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We’re moving into the middle of October this week but one more summery air mass appears ready to bring a severe weather risk to Minnesota on Tuesday. 

Let’s start with this glorious Monday. Bright sunshine and temperatures in the 60s and low 70s are making for a beautiful day across Minnesota. 

Monday night will be a lovely, windows-open, night with lows in the 50s south and some 40s north. 

Tuesday’s southerly breezes will pump even warmer air into Minnesota. The air mass appears capable of 80 degrees in southern Minnesota if we get enough sunshine in between cloud patches Tuesday. 

A cold front will cut through the warmer air mass across Minnesota late Tuesday. Many short-range forecast models suggest a line of storms could rapidly develop in the late afternoon warmth near or just west of the Twin Cities across central Minnesota.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s NAM 3 km resolution model blows up a pretty impressive line of cells just west of the Twin Cities around 6 p.m. to 7 p.m. Tuesday. 

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center lays out a marginal risk zone for severe weather across much of eastern Minnesota and Wisconsin Tuesday. 

The primary threats with storms Tuesday are potentially severe hail greater than 1 inch in diameter and possible wind gusts to around 60 mph.

Here’s more detail if you want to geek out with NOAA’s convective outlook discussion for Tuesday.

We need rainfall, so any rain Tuesday evening would be welcome in most areas. But mode forecast models suggest patchy rainfall coverage. 

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model blots out spotty rainfall patches that could reach an inch in a few lucky spots. 

So enjoy our beautiful summery weather pattern through Tuesday. But keep an eye out for possible strong to severe storms late Tuesday. 

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Paul Huttner

Author

A warm start to the week brings storm chances Tuesday.

NOAA

NOAA via tropical tidbits

European model (ECMWF) precipitation output

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