Winter storm warnings in northern Minnesota

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Scanning the forecast maps for widespread significant rainfall in Minnesota has been a futile endeavor lately. The last significant rain in the Twin Cities of an inch or more fell on Aug. 27-28. 

 update will likely show the droughty footprint expanding and deepening across Minnesota and the Midwest. I won’t be shocked to see exceptional drought conditions appear around parts of the Twin Cities in Thursday’s update. 

I talked with University of Minnesota forest ecology director 

. He said he’s never seen the impacts of drought happen so fast in his lifetime in Minnesota. 

We had a series of wet years, followed by back-to-back extreme drought years. Many of Minnesota’s trees just can’t handle the extreme weather whiplash of our new climate system. 

The term flash drought is a relatively new concept to many climate watchers. Our hotter climate features more stuck jet stream patterns. That can cause wild weather swings, from heavy rain and snow for a few months to little or no rain for the next few months. 

Out incredibly wet late winter and spring caused 

record flooding in northern Minnesota locations like Rainy Lake.

Then the spigot shut off in June, and persistent dryness caused drought to rapidly explode across central and southern Minnesota. Over the past 30 days, most of Minnesota has picked up less than 10 percent of average precipitation. 

The forecast maps suggest little or no rainfall for Minnesota for the next week. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model lays out little meaningful precipitation over the next 10 days. 

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model spins up a potential rainmaker late next week. 

I’m not super impressed with this system just yet. Let’s see if it fizzles like the last system, or if we get a decent soaking. 

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Paul Huttner

Author

Rainfall deficits growing deeper across Minnesota. 

USDA/UNL

Photo courtesy of Gary Potter

Midwest Regional Climate Center

European model (ECMWF) precipitation output

Searching for rain: Thursday's update likely to show deepening Minnesota drought

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