Winter storm warnings in northern Minnesota

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It’s a forecast phrase we’ve been waiting to hear. And we may be about to enjoy the heaviest rainfall event of 2022 for much of Minnesota. The heaviest rainfall system so far this year in the Twin Cities produced 1.94 inches on May 11. 

Chances are growing that Thursday’s inbound storm system will deliver multi-inch rainfall totals to parts of central and southern Minnesota into Wisconsin. Forecast models bring spotty showers Tuesday and Wednesday. The bulk of the heaviest precipitation arrives Thursday. 

Cold air on the backside of the system will likely dump heavy wet snow across the Dakotas and northern Minnesota. Blizzard conditions are possible in North Dakota and even Minnesota sections of the Red River Valley. 

Let’s break down our potent inbound fall storm that arrives later this week.

The storm is swirling off the coast of Washington Monday. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s NAM 3 km model shows the system wrapping up and dumping heavy rain and snow as it slides eastward. 

The good news? This system will likely produce fire season-ending rain and snowfall for California and the western U.S. Valley rainfall total could reach 3 to 6 inches in the west. Mountain snow will be prolific, with 3 to 6 feet of water-rich snowfall in the high Sierra. 

Upper Midwest: Heavy rain, snow potential

This potent storm system spins from Colorado Wednesday into the Upper Midwest Thursday. Spotty lighter showers will be around Tuesday and Wednesday. The bulk of the heaviest rain and snow arrives Thursday. 

Check out the last image of this NOAA Global Forecast System model loop, which occurs at 6 p.m. Thursday. You can see the heavy snow band over North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota with heavy rain and even thunderstorms over central and southern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities area. 

Forecast models are painting some impressive rainfall totals across central and southern Minnesota into Wisconsin. 

Most models favor between 1 and 3 inches for the greater Twin Cities and southern Minnesota. Some products crank out 2 to as much as 5 inches for this area into Wisconsin. 

Check out the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model, which dumps some 5 inches of rainfall in a pocket not far from the greater Twin Cities area! 

As for snow, it looks heavy in North Dakota into northern Minnesota. I won’t post the ridiculous forecast model output from Monday, but it’s reasonable to say a foot of snow or more is quite possible in North Dakota and possibly northern Minnesota. 

The Twin Cities area could pick up a snowy coating in the system’s cold backwash Friday.

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Paul Huttner

Author

A multi-inch rainfall system arrives in Minnesota Thursday.

Duluth National Weather Service

NOAA via tropical tidbits

Twin Cities National Weather Service

European model (ECMWF) precipitation output

Heaviest rainfall of 2022 possible this week; heavy snow potential up north

Go Deeper.

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