Temperatures will continue to fall over the next few days

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A potent fall storm brings a mix of rain, thunder and wintry weather to the Upper Midwest through Friday. There’s no question this system has plenty of moisture and cold air to work with. But the eventual precise storm track on this one will make a big difference in who gets a couple of inches of critical rainfall and who gets less than one-half inch. 

Several forecast models show a slight northward jog in storm track over the past 24 hours. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model now brings the surface low center north and west of the Twin Cities Thursday night. 

The loop below runs between midnight Thursday and midnight Friday. 

You can see the potentially heavy snowfall zone from the Red River Valley developing eastward into northern Minnesota.

That northward storm track jog would bump the heavier rainfall zone slightly north. That shift could mean the Twin Cities will see less rain this week. 

Tuesday’s European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model lays the precipitation conundrum out well. See how it’s projecting over 2 inches of precipitation in the northern Twin Cities, with just two-tenths of an inch in the south metro.

The Twin Cities and southern Minnesota ride the warm sector of this system Wednesday into Thursday. Highs will push well into the 60s, with 70 degrees in southern Minnesota. 

Temperatures will crash into the 30s behind the front. A few snow showers will likely fly in the Twin Cities Friday.

 will become warnings as we move into Wednesday. The heaviest snowfall of 6 to more than 12 inches is most likely in the Red River Valley and much of northwestern Minnesota.

Snowfall totals will be less across northeastern Minnesota. 

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Paul Huttner

Author

A potent fall storm will bring winter to the Red River Valley. The storm track is critical for Twin Cities rainfall totals. 

NOAA

NOAA via tropical tidbits

European model (ECMWF) precipitation output

Winter storm north; Twin Cities rides the edge of significant rainfall

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