Winter storm north; Twin Cities rides the edge of significant rainfall
A slight northward storm track shift could bring less rain to the Twin Cities
This one is all about the storm track.
A potent fall storm brings a mix of rain, thunder and wintry weather to the Upper Midwest through Friday. There’s no question this system has plenty of moisture and cold air to work with. But the eventual precise storm track on this one will make a big difference in who gets a couple of inches of critical rainfall and who gets less than one-half inch.
Several forecast models show a slight northward jog in storm track over the past 24 hours. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model now brings the surface low center north and west of the Twin Cities Thursday night.
The loop below runs between midnight Thursday and midnight Friday.
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You can see the potentially heavy snowfall zone from the Red River Valley developing eastward into northern Minnesota.
Less rain for the Twin Cities?
That northward storm track jog would bump the heavier rainfall zone slightly north. That shift could mean the Twin Cities will see less rain this week.
Tuesday’s European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model lays the precipitation conundrum out well. See how it’s projecting over 2 inches of precipitation in the northern Twin Cities, with just two-tenths of an inch in the south metro.
The Twin Cities and southern Minnesota ride the warm sector of this system Wednesday into Thursday. Highs will push well into the 60s, with 70 degrees in southern Minnesota.
Temperatures will crash into the 30s behind the front. A few snow showers will likely fly in the Twin Cities Friday.
Winter storm watches
Winter storm watches will become warnings as we move into Wednesday. The heaviest snowfall of 6 to more than 12 inches is most likely in the Red River Valley and much of northwestern Minnesota.
Including the cities of Fosston, Fertile, McIntosh, Erskine, Bagley, Clearbrook, Bemidji, Mahnomen, Naytahwaush, Waubun, Alida, Ebro, Lake Itasca, Long Lost Lake, Lower Rice Lake, Roy Lake, Upper Rice Lake, Park Rapids, Detroit Lakes, Wolf Lake, Fergus Falls, Perham, New York Mills, Parkers Prairie, Henning, Battle Lake, Wadena, Menahga, Elbow Lake, Hoffman, Ashby, Herman, and Barrett
222 PM CST Tue Nov 8 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
* WHAT...Heavy snow, mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 10 inches, with potential for small areas of higher amounts and ice accumulations of up to two tenths of an inch possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph.
* WHERE...Portions of central, north central, northwest and west central Minnesota.
* WHEN...From late Wednesday night through Friday afternoon.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Uncertainty remains for the areas that could receive the heaviest snow and timing and coverage of freezing rain or sleet. This will create large spread in potential impacts, and the storm track could still shift.
Snowfall totals will be less across northeastern Minnesota.
Including the cities of International Falls, Ely, Isabella, Bigfork, Hibbing, Walker, Grand Rapids, and Pine River
1020 AM CST Tue Nov 8 2022
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...
* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of more than 6 inches and ice accumulation of up to one tenth of an inch are possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph.
* WHERE...Koochiching, North St. Louis, Northern Cook and Lake, North Itasca, Central St. Louis, North Cass, South Itasca and South Cass Counties. This includes the Tribal Lands of the Bois Forte Band, Deer Creek, Nett Lake and, Lake Vermilion areas.
* WHEN...From Thursday morning through late Friday night.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Heavy, wet snow accumulation on trees and power lines may lead to power outages.
Stay tuned.