Snow for southern Minnesota Thursday night, Friday
Plowable snowfall totals probable from the southern Twin Cities to Iowa
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We’re in an active snowfall pattern across Minnesota this December.
Wednesday brought another snowy dusting with one-half inch at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport and nine-tenths of an inch at the Twin Cities National Weather Service office in Chanhassen.
Combined with our snowy November of 13 inches, we’re up to 15 inches of snowfall in the Twin Cities so far this season. That’s about 5 inches above average to date.
Now we look ahead to Thursday night and Friday and our next weather system. Let’s break down the likely snowfall timing, coverage, and totals.
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The system
The next low-pressure system is moderately strong and will track through Iowa to near Chicago Thursday night into Friday. That’s a favorable storm track for moderate to locally heavy snowfall across southern Minnesota along the Interstate 90 corridor.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s NAM 3 km model at the top of this post shows the snowfall coverage tracking across southern Minnesota between 6 p.m. Thursday and noon Friday.
Snowfall totals
If this storm track verifies the Twin Cities will ride the northern edge of the snow zone with the heaviest accumulations across southern Minnesota to near the Iowa border.
The latest European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model is aggressive with snowfall totals, laying out the heaviest zone across either side of the Iowa border along and south of I-90. This scenario would lay down a band of between 3 to 6 inches in many spots, with local totals to 8 inches possible.
Light snowfall of around 1 to 2 inches is more likely for the greater Twin Cities area, with heavier totals in the south metro.
The latest NOAA snowfall output is on the lighter side.
Expect snowfall to begin in southwestern Minnesota early Thursday evening. It will spread northeast across southern Minnesota and into the Twin Cities most likely between 9 p.m. and midnight. Friday morning’s rush hour looks snowy from the Twin Cities south.
Let’s see what the late evening forecast model runs bring. If the storm tracks farther north, snowfall totals in the Twin Cities could increase. If it tracks farther south, they could drop.
Stay tuned.
