Wintry mix Thursday night, another storm Friday

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You know that old saying — “just wait 15 minutes” — for different weather?

Get ready for a smorgasbord of wintry precipitation types this weekend across Minnesota. Winter weather watches and warnings are flying across the Upper Midwest this week. 

Here are a few National Weather Service office links to follow the wide array of warnings:

Right off the top, there are a couple of factors that make this system unique and will affect the type and duration of weather you see out your window this week.

Let’s break down this Frankenstein monster storm this week.

This potent low-pressure system is the same one that dumped almost 6 feet of snow in the Sierra Mountains out West.

The system will spin into our region Tuesday, then stall for most of this week. 

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model gives you the big picture of a slow-moving system into Saturday. The initial rain, ice, and snow waves hit Tuesday, then the system produces intermittent precipitation that trends toward mostly snow showers later this week into Saturday.

Icy precipitation begins around or after midnight overnight Monday in southwestern Minnesota and spreads northeast through Tuesday. Note how an icy mix of possible sleet and snow changes to rain across the Twin Cities by late Tuesday.

Ice accumulations could exceed one-quarter inch in eastern South Dakota and southwestern Minnesota around Luverne, Pipestone, Worthington, and areas in between.

Ice storm warnings are up for parts of eastern South Dakota.

Because the freezing line is likely to hover north of the Twin Cities most of Tuesday into Wednesday, it looks like rainfall will cut snowfall totals around the greater Twin Cities through Wednesday. 

The heaviest snow early in the storm will run from the Dakotas through central Minnesota to the North Shore. 

Here’s NOAA’s Global Forecast System model snowfall output through 6 a.m. Thursday:

Persistent easterly wind fetches across Lake Superior with this system will enhance snowfall totals along the North Shore. Several forecast models conservatively exceed 1 foot of snow this week. And a few are pumping out more than 2 feet of snow locally.

Check out these prolific snowfall totals along the North Shore from the Canadian model this week.

Phase ll: Mostly snow Thursday into Saturday

Colder air will work in behind the system as it stalls and swirls over Wisconsin Thursday into Saturday. That means periods of snow showers that will add up to inches over time for most of Minnesota.

This Canadian model snowfall output into Sunday projects that snowfall totals could reach around 6 inches around the greater Twin Cities by Sunday. 

Not high confidence here, but we’ll likely add up a few inches in frequent snow shower bands between Thursday and Sunday.

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Paul Huttner

Author

All winter weather types are likely in Minnesota this week.

Slow-moving storm to drop ice, sleet, snow and rain across Minnesota

Go Deeper.

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