Another wintry storm Friday

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Minnesota’s massive wintry storm is unfolding pretty much as expected so far this Tuesday afternoon. It’s mostly rain in the Twin Cities, ice in southwestern Minnesota and mixed wintry precipitation across most of western and central Minnesota.

Check out the nearly 1 inch (0.88) of ice recorded Tuesday in Pipestone!

Let’s focus for a minute on some of the most extreme impacts of this storm. Specifically, let’s look at what looks like some prolific snowfall totals and high winds along the North Shore this week.

You don’t often see posted blizzard warnings lasting for 48 hours. But the long duration of pounding snow and winds off Lake Superior will deliver sustained snow bursts along the North Shore from Tuesday evening through most of Thursday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s NAM 3 km model shows persistent easterly flow around the storm that will set up a sustained fetch across Lake Superior. That will trigger both bands of system snow and additional lake-effect snow plumes. 

Then, as the intense snow squalls roll inland up the hill, orographic effects of higher terrain will enhance snowfall rates and totals even more. 

This looks like a sustained meteorological assault on the North Shore. Snowfall rates could reach 1 to 3 inches per hour at times.

blizzard warning along most of the North Shore

 runs from 6 p.m Tuesday to 6 p.m. Thursday.

All that snow will be driven ashore by winds gusts to around 45 mph. Gusts along the North Shore will hit 30 mph for several hours Wednesday.

It should be noted that the National Weather Service forecast map of snowfall total runs only through 6 p.m. Thursday.

 But additional snowfall totals are likely into Saturday.

This is one of those extreme situations where I think there’s a chance for much higher-end snowfall totals along the North Shore by Sunday. The prolonged lake-effect wind trajectories could pump bands of heavy snow into the area into this weekend.

A few forecast models crank out 3 or more feet of snow locally by Sunday. Here’s the Canadian model (Kuchera) snowfall output through Saturday.

It should be noted that NOAA’s Global Forecast System model pumps out even higher totals to 40 inches by Sunday. That’s probably overdone, but you get the idea that we’ll likely be counting snowfall by the foot along the North Shore by this weekend.

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Paul Huttner

Author

The most severe impacts of our massive wintry storm will hit Minnesota’s North Shore.

Blizzard warning: 1-2 feet of snow along North Shore through Thursday

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