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Call it the Winter Solstice Blizzard of 2022.

A major winter storm with blizzard potential across the Upper Midwest arrives Wednesday on the winter solstice.

Overall, our major wintry storm is still on track. This will be one of those storms where eventual snowfall totals will matter less to overall travel conditions than the dryness of the snow, and the high winds that will whip the fluffy snow airborne Thursday and Friday.

Here’s the latest breakdown of the system based on Tuesday’s 12Z model runs that are in as of midday.

The low-pressure wave responsible for this storm will deepen along an advancing arctic frontal boundary Wednesday through Friday. 

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model tracks the surface low as it dips from Wyoming into the Texas Panhandle, then races toward Milwaukee by noon Thursday.

Snow will spread from west to east across Minnesota Wednesday. It likely begins falling in the Twin Cities by the midday hours. 

Forecast trends: Faster, dual snowfall maxima system?

The latest trends suggest a faster-moving system with two separate potential snowfall maxima.

A faster storm would mean less snowfall overall, and two separate snowfall maxima could place the heaviest snow across northern Minnesota and parts of Wisconsin. That would produce less snowfall overall around the greater Twin Cities area.

Here are two very different snowfall solutions. NOAA’s GFS model still cranks out the potential for double-digit snowfall totals near the Twin Cities.

But NOAA’s North American Mesoscale Forecast System 3 km model favors heavier snow up north and to the southeast with closer to 4 to 6 inches around the greater Twin Cities area. 

Right now I’m leaning toward the lower-end solutions of the projected 5 to 10-inch range for the Twin Cities, with heavier snowfall up north, especially along the North Shore.

Regardless of overall snowfall totals, this will be dry snow. Snow-to-water ratios could reach 15:1 or even 20:1 with this system. That means the snow will be easily lofted airborne as the winds kick up Thursday and Friday. 

Wind gusts in the 40 to 50-mph range will whip snow into the air and create blizzard or near-blizzard conditions Thursday and Friday.

Throw in subzero temperatures and you’ve got wind chills that will reach into the 30s and 40s below zero across Minnesota Thursday and Friday.

Minnesotans understand what this dangerous combination of snow, wind, and cold can do to roads and airports. 

Expect near-impossible travel from Wednesday afternoon through at least Friday. Visibility on slick roads will drop to near zero in open areas. If you get stuck, the chances for dangerous frostbite will be high.

Airports will likely see delays from Wednesday through Friday.

Be safe out there and reconsider travel plans. The best times for travel will be through Wednesday morning. It looks like another clipper could bring more snow to Minnesota on Christmas night. It’s one of those years.

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Paul Huttner

Author

A major winter storm arrives on the winter solstice.

Winter solstice storm brings snow, high winds, blizzard potential

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