Arctic cold won't budge until Wednesday; update on temps

Wind chill warning northwestern Minnesota

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Friday in Minneapolis
Ron Trenda | MPR News

If you are going to be outdoors Sunday, you’ll probably be happiest if you wear your warmest coat, hat and gloves or mittens.

The Sunday morning low temp at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport was 5 below zero. It was the first official below-zero reading this month at MSP.

High temps Sunday afternoon will be in the single digits above zero in the metro area and much of southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Many locations in northern Minnesota will have Sunday highs in the single digits below zero.

Wind chill advisories, warnings

The wind chill advisory for the Twin Cities metro area, south-central Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin expired at 10 a.m. Sunday, but wind chill advisories run until noon in southwestern Minnesota and until 11 a.m. from Brainerd through Duluth and into northwestern Wisconsin.

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A wind chill advisory continues until 1 p.m. this Sunday in north-central Minnesota and much of northeastern Minnesota.

There is a wind chill warning through Monday morning in parts of eastern North Dakota and most of northwestern Minnesota:

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Sunday-Sunday night wind chill advisories and warnings
National Weather Service

Here are details of the wind chill warning:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 331 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023 MNZ001-004>009-013-014-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-054- 301800- /O.CON.KFGF.WC.W.0001.000000T0000Z-230130T1800Z/ West Polk-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-West Marshall- East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-Towner-Cavalier- Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks- Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Western Walsh- Including the cities of Crookston, East Grand Forks, Hallock, Karlstad, Lancaster, Roseau, Warroad, Greenbush, Baudette, Warren, Stephen, Argyle, Newfolden, Middle River, Grygla, Red Lake, Redby, Ponemah, Thief River Falls, Red Lake Falls, Cando, Langdon, Cavalier, Walhalla, Drayton, Pembina, Neche, St. Thomas, Fort Totten, Maddock, Leeds, Minnewaukan, Devils Lake, Grafton, Park River, New Rockford, Lakota, Mcville, Aneta, Tolna, Grand Forks, Cooperstown, Finley, Hope, Mayville, Hillsboro, Hatton, Portland, Valley City, Edinburg, Adams, and Lankin 331 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023 ...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY... * WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills. Wind chills as low as 45 below zero. * WHERE...Portions of north central and northwest Minnesota and northeast and southeast North Dakota. * WHEN...Until noon CST Monday. * IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Avoid outside activities if possible. If outside, make sure you wear appropriate winter clothing.

Bemidji, Detroit Lakes and Fergus Falls are in a wind chill advisory through Sunday afternoon, then they are in a wind chill warning overnight and Monday morning:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 331 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023 MNZ002-003-015>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ039-049-052-053-301800- /O.CON.KFGF.WC.W.0001.230130T0000Z-230130T1800Z/ /O.CON.KFGF.WC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-230130T0000Z/ Norman-Clay-East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen- South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin- West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Cass-Ransom-Sargent- Richland- Including the cities of Ada, Twin Valley, Halstad, Moorhead, Fosston, Fertile, McIntosh, Erskine, Bagley, Clearbrook, Bemidji, Mahnomen, Naytahwaush, Waubun, Alida, Ebro, Lake Itasca, Long Lost Lake, Lower Rice Lake, Roy Lake, Upper Rice Lake, Park Rapids, Detroit Lakes, Wolf Lake, Breckenridge, Fergus Falls, Perham, New York Mills, Parkers Prairie, Henning, Battle Lake, Wadena, Menahga, Elbow Lake, Hoffman, Ashby, Herman, Barrett, Fargo, Lisbon, Enderlin, Gwinner, Milnor, Forman, Rutland, and Wahpeton 331 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING... ...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY... * WHAT...For the Wind Chill Warning, dangerously cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as 45 below zero. For the Wind Chill Advisory, very cold wind chills. Wind chills as low as 40 below zero. * WHERE...Portions of central, north central, northwest and west central Minnesota and southeast North Dakota. * WHEN...For the Wind Chill Warning, from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Monday. For the Wind Chill Advisory, until 6 PM CST this evening. * IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Avoid outside activities if possible. If outside, make sure you wear appropriate winter clothing.

I expect wind chill advisories to be issued for additional parts of Minnesota and western Wisconsin Sunday night into Monday morning.

You can find updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the Minnesota Public Radio News network, and on the MPR News live weather blog.

An arctic high-pressure system will remain entrenched nearby into Monday. Although measurable snow is not expected, a stray flurry will be possible. Many areas will see a mix of sun and clouds Sunday and Monday

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential pressure pattern and precipitation pattern from late Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon:

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Simulated radar from 5 p.m. Sunday to 5 p.m. Monday
NOAA, via Tropicaltidbits.com

Low temps late Sunday night and early Monday will be in the 20s below zero in west-central and northern Minnesota, with mainly teens below zero elsewhere:

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Forecast lows late Sunday night/early Monday
National Weather Service

Monday highs will be in the single digits below zero in northern Minnesota, with mostly single digits above zero in the south:

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Monday forecast highs
National Weather Service

For perspective, the average Twin Cities high temperature is 24 degrees on Jan. 30.

Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to be around 11 degrees above zero on Tuesday, followed by mid teens Wednesday and Thursday and upper teens on Friday. We’ll probably see highs in the 20s next weekend.

Weather nugget

The Twin Cities record low for this date, Jan. 29, is 29 degrees below zero, set in 1951. The Twin Cities high temp on that date was 15 degrees below zero.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. Saturday and Sunday.