Frigid temperatures this weekend prompt cold weather advisories

MPR News helps you turn down the noise and build shared understanding. Turn up your support for this public resource and keep trusted journalism accessible to all. 

Turn Up Your Support

It’s been a snowy winter across much of Minnesota. And most of that snow is still sitting on the ground waiting to melt this spring.

So how much water is in that snowpack? And what does it mean for our spring flood risk? The North Central River Forecast Center on Wednesday released its first spring flood outlook for 2023. 

This group of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration hydrologists forecasts river levels for the Upper Midwest. They work out of the Twin Cities National Weather Service office in Chanhassen.

Let’s break down the initial assessment for spring flooding across our region. 

There is currently 12 to 18 inches of snow on the ground across most of Minnesota. There is a little less in the west and south, and more than 2 feet in parts of northeastern Minnesota. 

I’ve included some commentary from Thursday’s initial flood outlook below in each section. 

Hydrologists can calculate how much water is in the snow cover across Minnesota. This is done through flights with remote sensing equipment, and additional measurements on the ground. 

The water in the snow across our region is in the top 5 to 15 winters on record in Minnesota. 

Soil moisture conditions were extremely dry heading into winter, but they have improved some with the recent wet pattern. In addition, the early and heavy snow cover has insulated soils from extreme cold. 

This means frost depth is shallow this winter, and some soils are not completely frozen. That may lead to more water absorption this spring.

Rivers, lakes, and ponds were very low heading into this winter. That means there is plenty of headroom for runoff to raise water levels before flooding occurs. 

Even with above-average snow water equivalent between 2 and 4 inches in our region in the snow cover, the flood risk at this point is average for the spring of 2023.

Right now most outlooks favor near-average precipitation this spring across most of our region. 

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Paul Huttner

Author

Rivers, lakes, and ponds were very low heading into this winter. That means there is plenty of headroom for runoff to raise water levels before flooding occurs, according to a newly released National Weather Service assessment.

Despite snowy winter, forecasters see average Minnesota spring flood risk

Go Deeper.

Like this?