Record Valentine's Day rain; flash freeze by Wednesday morning
Blizzard warnings across western Minnesota; weather advisory includes Twin Cities
Get ready for big changes in our weather overnight. A flash freeze will plunge temperatures well below freezing across most of Minnesota by Wednesday morning.
Record rainfall Tuesday
Our rare and unusual heavy February rain event has set a new record for daily precipitation in the Twin Cities. The previous precipitation record for Feb. 14 was 43 one-hundredths of an inch (.43) set in 1950.
As of 5 p.m. Tuesday, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport has already recorded 46 one-hundredths (.46) of precipitation.
Many locations will pick up from one-half inch to more than 1 inch across Minnesota through Tuesday night.
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Rain to wind-driven snow
Cold air is racing into the backside of our rainy low-pressure storm. Rain will change to wind-driven snow from west to east across Minnesota overnight. The Twin Cities area will likely see a transition to snow from west to east in the hours surrounding and after midnight.
Here’s the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s latest (18Z) NAM 3 km forecast model run through 6 a.m. Wednesday:
Blizzard warnings
Blizzard warnings kick in across western Minnesota Tuesday evening. The combination of high winds over 50 mph and blowing snow will reduce visibilities to near zero at times. Travel will be difficult to impossible in many areas overnight through Wednesday morning.
Including the cities of Alexandria, Morris, and Glenwood
353 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023
...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY...
* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 55 mph.
* WHERE...Douglas, Stevens and Pope Counties.
* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Wednesday.
* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. The cold wind chills as low as 20 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Rain today will turn to snow from west to east this evening as much colder air arrives. A period of moderate snow will occur late evening and overnight as winds increase steadily and gust as high as 55 mph. A flash freeze and whiteout conditions are likely.
Flash freeze
Temperatures will plunge below freezing across Minnesota overnight into Wednesday morning. Lows will hover near zero in the Red River Valley with wind chills into the minus 20s possible by morning.
The rapidly falling temperatures will quickly freeze any standing water. Wind-whipped snow on top of the ice will cause a slick and challenging morning commute for most of Minnesota including the Twin Cities.
The Twin Cities is now included in the winter weather advisory zone until 9 a.m. Wednesday.
Including the cities of Elk River, Monticello, Minneapolis, Blaine, St Paul, Stillwater, Chanhassen, Chaska, Victoria, Shakopee, Hastings, Le Sueur, and Faribault
353 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY...
* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of up to one inch. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.
* WHERE...Portions of central, east central and south central Minnesota.
* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Wednesday.
* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Rain today will turn to snow from west to east during the early morning hours as much colder air arrives. A period of light to moderate snow will occur overnight through the Wednesday morning commute as winds increase steadily and gust as high as 45 mph. A flash freeze is likely and whiteout conditions are possible at times.
Typical February cold returns
The air mass behind the storm is more typical for mid-February. Highs Thursday will hover in the teens and 20s across Minnesota.
Temperatures will return to the 30s by this weekend. Next week looks colder again, with a chance for snow by around next Thursday.
Stay tuned.