More than a foot of snow is possible from Tuesday evening into Thursday

The buzz is all about the winter storm that’ll bring heavy snow and strong winds to much of Minnesota and western Wisconsin Tuesday afternoon into Thursday, but I’ll first detail the snow that’ll hit northern Minnesota on Monday.

Monday snow

A low pressure system will bring a shot of snow to roughly the northern half of Minnesota and northern Wisconsin late Sunday night and Monday. Several inches of snow are expected in roughly the northern third of Minnesota, plus parts of northwestern Wisconsin.

Here are forecast snow totals in northwestern Minnesota:

Here are forecast snow totals in northeastern Minnesota:

Lighter snow amounts are expected in central Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin. Parts of the Twin Cities metro area could see light snow at times on Monday, with a rain/snow mix possible in the afternoon. Any snow accumulation in the metro area would tend to be very light…less than one-half of an inch.

Winter weather advisories

Winter weather advisories for snow and blowing snow begin Sunday evening in northwestern Minnesota and then continue through Monday and into Monday evening:

Here are details of the winter weather advisory in northwestern Minnesota and eastern North Dakota:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 241 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2023 MNZ001-002-004-005-007-008-013>015-NDZ008-016-027>030-210300- /O.CON.KFGF.WW.Y.0006.230220T0000Z-230221T0300Z/ West Polk-Norman-Kittson-Roseau-West Marshall-East Marshall- Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-Pembina-Eastern Walsh-Grand Forks- Griggs-Steele-Traill- Including the cities of Crookston, East Grand Forks, Ada, Twin Valley, Halstad, Hallock, Karlstad, Lancaster, Roseau, Warroad, Greenbush, Warren, Stephen, Argyle, Newfolden, Middle River, Grygla, Thief River Falls, Red Lake Falls, Fosston, Fertile, McIntosh, Erskine, Cavalier, Walhalla, Drayton, Pembina, Neche, St. Thomas, Grafton, Park River, Grand Forks, Cooperstown, Finley, Hope, Mayville, Hillsboro, Hatton, and Portland 241 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2023 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM CST MONDAY... * WHAT...Snow and blowing snow. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Portions of northwest Minnesota and northeast and southeast North Dakota. * WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 9 PM CST Monday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Heavy snow rates and patchy blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility at times. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strongest winds and best chance for blowing snow will be Monday afternoon and evening after the snow ends. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for North Dakota can be found at dot.nd.gov/travel and for Minnesota at 511mn.org, or by calling 5 1 1 in either state.

The winter weather advisory starts at 9 p.m. from Detroit Lakes through Bemidji.

A winter weather advisory starts at midnight Sunday night in north-central and northeastern Minnesota and then continues through Monday and into Monday evening:

Here are details of the advisory in northeastern Minnesota:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Duluth MN 247 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2023 MNZ012-020-021-200900- /O.CON.KDLH.WW.Y.0012.230220T0600Z-230221T0300Z/ Northern Cook and Lake-Southern Lake-Southern Cook- Including the cities of Isabella, Two Harbors, Silver Bay, and Grand Marais 247 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2023 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 PM CST MONDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches. * WHERE...Northern Cook and Lake, Southern Lake and Southern Cook Counties. This includes the Tribal Lands of the Grand Portage Reservation. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 9 PM CST Monday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Road conditions can also be found at 511mn.org for Minnesota or 511wi.gov for Wisconsin.

You can find updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the Minnesota Public Radio News network, and on the MPR News live weather blog.

Big snowstorm is headed our way

A major snowstorm will bring periods of heavy snow plus strong winds to much of southern and central Minnesota plus western Wisconsin Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday and Thursday.

The snow begins in western Minnesota Tuesday morning, then spreads eastward Tuesday afternoon/evening. Heavy snow is possible in many areas Tuesday evening into early Wednesday, then the snow may lighten up for a few hours before heavier snow returns late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening/night.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern from 6 a.m. Tuesday through Wednesday evening:

Notice the break in the snow coverage by mid morning on Wednesday, then the second wave of significant snow begins later Wednesday afternoon. That second batch of heavier snow will continue overnight Wednesday night and linger into Thursday.

How much snow?

Many areas are likely to see a foot or more of snow from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday:

Some forecast models show snowstorm totals of 16 to 20 inches in several locations.

Winter storm watch

Winter storm watches have been posted for most of central and southern Minnesota plus western Wisconsin, with various Tuesday start times and end times Thursday afternoon or Thursday evening:

Here are details of the winter storm watch that starts at 6 p.m. Tuesday and runs to 6 p.m. Thursday in the Twin Cities metro area and much of central and south-central Minnesota plus west-central Wisconsin:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 230 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2023 MNZ041>045-049>053-059>063-068>070-076>078-084-085-093-WIZ014>016- 023>028-200430- /O.NEW.KMPX.WS.A.0003.230222T0000Z-230224T0000Z/ Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stearns-Benton-Sherburne- Isanti-Chisago-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-Carver- Scott-Dakota-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Waseca-Steele-Freeborn-Polk- Barron-Rusk-St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Chippewa-Eau Claire- Including the cities of Alexandria, Long Prairie, Little Falls, Princeton, Mora, St Cloud, Sauk Rapids, Elk River, Cambridge, Center City, Monticello, Minneapolis, Blaine, St Paul, Stillwater, Chanhassen, Chaska, Victoria, Shakopee, Hastings, Le Sueur, Faribault, Red Wing, Waseca, Owatonna, Albert Lea, Osceola, Rice Lake, Ladysmith, Hudson, River Falls, Menomonie, Durand, Chippewa Falls, and Eau Claire 230 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2023 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of greater than 12 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph and lead to areas of blowing snow, blizzard conditions possible. * WHERE...Portions of central, east central, south central, southeast and west central Minnesota and northwest and west central Wisconsin. * WHEN...From Tuesday evening through Thursday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commutes. The cold wind chills as low as 20 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...There will be two main waves of this event. The first Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning will see totals of 4 to 8 inches of snow. There will be a lull before snow picks up again Wednesday evening where an additional 8 or more inches of snow could fall. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

The winter storm watch begins at noon on Tuesday and runs until noon Thursday in southwestern and west-central Minnesota. Here are watch details for southwestern Minnesota:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 250 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2023 MNZ071-072-080-081-097-SDZ039-040-200600- /O.NEW.KFSD.WS.A.0003.230221T1800Z-230223T1800Z/ Lincoln-Lyon-Murray-Cottonwood-Pipestone-Kingsbury-Brookings- 250 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2023 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions possible. Total snow accumulations of 14 to 20 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph. * WHERE...Portions of southwest Minnesota and east central South Dakota. * WHEN...From Tuesday afternoon through Thursday morning. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Strong winds could cause tree damage. The cold wind chills as low as 20 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... The greatest risk for blizzard conditions will be early Wednesday through early Thursday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Prepare for possible blizzard conditions. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

Here are watch details for southeastern Minnesota:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service La Crosse WI 214 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2023 ...Winter Storm To Bring Snow Tuesday Night... .A band of snow is expected to develop eastward out of southern and central Minnesota Tuesday afternoon, spreading into western Wisconsin that evening. Snow continues through the overnight, diminishing Wednesday morning. Several inches of snow will be possible with the potential for locally higher amounts. This will be round 1 of a complex winter storm system. Wind on Wednesday could blow around some of the freshly fallen snow. Come Wednesday night snow returns in the north with a wintry mix more likely across the south. This transitions to all snow on Thursday. Several more inches of snow are expected with the potential for some icing for parts of northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin. Winds will continue to blow, pushing some of that snow around. This looks to be a HIGHLY impactful winter storm with many facets. Travel could be severely impacted at times. With some adjustments in the storm track possible, along with uncertainties in where the heavier snow bands and favored wintry mix areas lie, expect refinements to the forecast over the next few days. MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-053-201015- /O.NEW.KARX.WS.A.0004.230222T0000Z-230222T1200Z/ Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-Taylor-Clark- Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-Adams-Vernon- Including the cities of Wabasha, Dodge Center, Rochester, Winona, Austin, Preston, Caledonia, Medford, Neillsville, Alma, Arcadia, Whitehall, Black River Falls, La Crosse, Sparta, Tomah, Mauston, Friendship, and Viroqua 214 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2023 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 7 inches. * WHERE...Portions of southeast Minnesota and central, north central, southwest and west central Wisconsin. * WHEN...From Tuesday evening through late Tuesday night. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

Temperature trends

Monday highs will range from 30s in southern and central Minnesota to mainly 20s in the north:

Parts of northwestern Minnesota will have Monday highs in the teens.

The Twin Cities metro area will have Monday highs in the upper 30s. Metro area highs retreat to the lower 20s on Tuesday and Wednesday followed by upper teens Thursday and Friday.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. Saturday and Sunday.