Quiet weather through Saturday; rain-snow starts Sunday afternoon

There are lingering areas of fog in parts of northern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin Saturday morning. Visibilities are expected to improve by afternoon.

Most of us will have quiet weather Saturday with a brief flurry possible in a few spots. Highs will reach the 30s in most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Parts of northwestern and west-central Minnesota will have Saturday highs in the 20s.

Areas of fog are possible Saturday night into early Sunday.

Rain, snow start Sunday afternoon

A low-pressure system is expected to spread snow and rain into Minnesota and western Wisconsin Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening. The precipitation will continue overnight Sunday night and into Monday in many areas.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern from noon Sunday to 5 p.m. Monday:

The heaviest snow is expected to be to the north:

Here’s a look at heavy snow potential in northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin from Sunday evening into Monday:

The Twin Cities metro area may see a rain-snow mix late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night and Monday morning, along with some periods of mainly snow. Snow accumulations will depend on how long we have mainly snow and how long it is a rain-snow mix or mainly rain.

At this point it looks like the metro area could see an inch or two of slushy snow from late Sunday into Monday morning, with more than two inches in the far north metro. We could also hear some thunder at times.

Winter storm watch

A winter storm watch covers portions of central and northern Minnesota from Sunday afternoon into Monday afternoon:

Here are details of the winter storm watch that runs from 4 p.m. Sunday to 3 p.m. Monday in Alexandria, Princeton and Mora:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 330 AM CST Sat Mar 4 2023 MNZ041>045-041730- /O.NEW.KMPX.WS.A.0005.230305T2200Z-230306T2100Z/ Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec- Including the cities of Alexandria, Long Prairie, Little Falls, Princeton, and Mora 330 AM CST Sat Mar 4 2023 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Wet and heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 7 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. * WHERE...Douglas, Todd, Morrison, Mille Lacs and Kanabec Counties. * WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Slippery road conditions and reduced visibility from snow and blowing snow could impact the Monday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The track of this system is still uncertain so please stay tuned to the forecast, especially if you have travel plans. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

Here are details of the winter storm watch in Detroit Lakes and Park Rapids:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 344 AM CST Sat Mar 4 2023 MNZ022>024-027-028-030>032-040-062100- /O.EXB.KFGF.WS.A.0003.230306T0000Z-230306T2100Z/ Mahnomen-South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker- West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant- Including the cities of Mahnomen, Naytahwaush, Waubun, Alida, Ebro, Lake Itasca, Long Lost Lake, Lower Rice Lake, Roy Lake, Upper Rice Lake, Park Rapids, Detroit Lakes, Wolf Lake, Fergus Falls, Perham, New York Mills, Parkers Prairie, Henning, Battle Lake, Wadena, Menahga, Elbow Lake, Hoffman, Ashby, Herman, and Barrett 344 AM CST Sat Mar 4 2023 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 7 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Portions of central, north central, northwest and west central Minnesota. * WHEN...From Sunday evening through Monday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

The winter storm watch begins at 9 a.m. Sunday in Moorhead, Minn.

A winter storm watch begins Sunday evening in parts of northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin:

Here are watch details:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Duluth MN 336 AM CST Sat Mar 4 2023 MNZ020-037-WIZ001>004-042145- /O.NEW.KDLH.WS.A.0003.230306T0000Z-230307T0000Z/ Southern Lake-Carlton and South St. Louis-Douglas-Bayfield- Ashland-Iron- Including the cities of Two Harbors, Silver Bay, Duluth, Superior, Washburn, Bayfield, Ashland, and Hurley 336 AM CST Sat Mar 4 2023 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...In Minnesota, Southern Lake and Carlton and South St. Louis Counties. In Wisconsin, Douglas, Bayfield, Ashland and Iron Counties. This includes the Tribal Lands of the northwestern area of the Lac du Flambeau Band, the Fond du Lac Band, the Bad River Reservation and the Red Cliff Band. * WHEN...From Sunday evening through Monday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Patchy blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The track of this system is still uncertain which will affect snow amounts, so please stay tuned to the forecast. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

You can find updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the Minnesota Public Radio News network, and on the MPR News live weather blog.

Temperature trends

The average Twin Cities high temp is 36 degrees on March 5. Metro area highs may be slightly above that mark on Sunday.

Most of Minnesota will have Sunday highs in the 30s:

Wind gusts will be 30 mph or higher in some areas by late Sunday afternoon:

Forecast gusts are in knots, with 26 knots equal to 29.9 mph.

Back to forecast highs, metro area high temps are projected to reach the upper 30s on Tuesday, followed by mid 30s Wednesday then lower 30s Thursday and upper 20s on Friday.

Snow depths

There’s plenty of snow on the ground across most of Minnesota.

Here’s the latest snow depth map from the Minnesota State Climatology Office:

The snow depth at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport is currently listed at 7 inches, but many parts of the metro area have snow depths of 8 to 12 inches. Some higher amounts are found in the north metro.

Snow depths of 18 inches or higher are reported across much of central and northeastern Minnesota, with 24 to 30 inches in the light-purple shaded areas of northeastern Minnesota.

Weather nugget

The Twin Cities metro area has an average of 8.2 inches of snow in the month of March. We’ve had March snow totals much lower than that the past three years, but four years ago (in March of 2019) weather observers at MSP airport tallied 10.5 inches of snow.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. Saturday and Sunday.