2-5 inches snow likely Wednesday in NW Minn.; close watch on Thursday models
Forecast models suggest heaviest snow will fall south of the Twin Cities Thursday
I’m still watching forecast models for the potential snowfall this week. The latest trends suggest we’re still on track for some snow across most of Minnesota Wednesday. The heaviest snow (image above) favors northwestern Minnesota Wednesday.
But forecast models have been consistently pulling back on snowfall potential for Thursday into early Friday. A more southerly storm track and a faster moving system could trim eventual snowfall totals Thursday into Friday.
Here’s the latest thinking from the afternoon suite of forecast models.
Wednesday snow
Wednesday’s snow will impact northwestern Minnesota and the Red River Valley the most. It’s a separate system out ahead of Thursday’s low-pressure storm, which will track farther south.
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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s NAM 3 km model is similar to many others. It pushes snow into western Minnesota Tuesday evening. Snow will favor the northwest half of Minnesota overnight.
A secondary snow band looks likely to develop Wednesday morning across central Minnesota, including the Twin Cities area.
The highest snowfall accumulations favor northwestern Minnesota, where anywhere from 2 to 5 inches of snow are likely.
Including the cities of Crookston, East Grand Forks, Ada, Twin Valley, Halstad, Moorhead, Warren, Stephen, Argyle, Newfolden, Middle River, Grygla, Thief River Falls, Red Lake Falls, Fosston, Fertile, McIntosh, Erskine, Bagley, Clearbrook, Mahnomen, Naytahwaush, Waubun, Alida, Ebro, Lake Itasca, Long Lost Lake, Lower Rice Lake, Roy Lake, and Upper Rice Lake
309 PM CST Tue Mar 7 2023
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY...
* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches.
* WHERE...Portions of northwest and west central Minnesota. * WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Wednesday.
* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.
Temperatures will be in the teens across northwestern Minnesota Wednesday morning, so expect slick roadways through the day.
Most forecast models suggest less than an inch of snow for the Twin Cities Wednesday. A couple of outlier models suggest there could be some localized pockets with 2 inches or so.
Temperatures will be above freezing Wednesday afternoon in the Twin Cities, so roads may be mostly just wet by the afternoon commute.
It looks like Wednesday's snow will not be a high-impact event for the Twin Cities, but will be significant in northwestern Minnesota.
Thursday snow potential
Thursday’s potential snow system is full of forecast questions at this point. Forecast models over the weekend into Monday were gung-ho on big snow for the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota. They dialed back big time on Tuesday with a faster, more southerly storm track.
Winter storm watches are posted for most of the southern half of Minnesota into Wisconsin Thursday.
As of this post, NOAA’s latest 18Z Global Forecast System model still projects a low-pressure track south of Chicago Thursday. That storm track typically lays out the heaviest snow bands across Iowa and southern Wisconsin into parts of Chicago.
The model lays out a wide band of heavy snow across most of Iowa, southern Minnesota and Wisconsin, and northern Illinois. More moderate snowfall totals between about 3 and 5 inches favor the greater Twin Cities area on this particular solution.
There’s still plenty to watch for with forecast models runs late Tuesday through Wednesday. Let’s see where this system trends in the next 36 hours before the snow flies for real.
As we say in the weather biz, stay tuned.