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Winter storm warnings south and west of Twin Cities Thursday

Twin Cities under winter weather advisory with 2-5 inches likely by Friday

Winter storm warnings and advisories
Winter storm warnings and advisories.
Twin Cities National Weather Service office

Here comes our next snow maker Minnesota.

A low-pressure system will track south of Chicago Thursday into Friday. That storm track favors heavier snowfall across southern Minnesota, Iowa, and from Wisconsin into Chicago.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s NAM 3 km model shows snow gathering in southwestern Minnesota Thursday morning, then increasing in coverage across our region Thursday afternoon and evening. The heaviest snow will likely fall Thursday evening.

NOAA NAM 3 km model 3
North American Mesoscale 3 km model between 6 a.m. Thursday and 6 a.m. Friday
NOAA, via Tropical Tidbits

The map above shows where winter storm warnings go into effect Thursday for parts of southwestern and southeastern Minnesota. The Twin Cities and most of central and southern Minnesota are under a winter weather advisory.

Including the cities of St Cloud, Sauk Rapids, Elk River, Willmar, Litchfield, Monticello, Minneapolis, Blaine, St Paul, Stillwater, Hutchinson, Gaylord, Chanhassen, Chaska, Victoria, Shakopee, Hastings, Le Sueur, Faribault, and Red Wing

302 PM CST Wed Mar 8 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central, south central and southeast Minnesota.

* WHEN...From noon Thursday to 6 AM CST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute.

Here’s more detail on the winter storm warning zone.

Lac Qui Parle-Yellow Medicine-Freeborn- Including the cities of Madison, Granite Falls, and Albert Lea

302 PM CST Wed Mar 8 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8 inches.

* WHERE...Lac Qui Parle, Yellow Medicine and Freeborn Counties.

* WHEN...From 9 AM Thursday to 6 AM CST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute.

Snowfall totals

I’m still leaning toward a general range of 2 to 5 inches of snow for the Twin Cities area by early Friday. The better chance for 4 to 8 inches lies across southern into southeastern Minnesota.

The heaviest snowfall zone with this storm will likely land across Iowa through southern Wisconsin and Chicago.

NOAA’s oft-maligned Global Forecast System model seems like it has a reasonable handle on likely snowfall totals by Friday.

NOAA GFS snowfall output
Global Forecast System snowfall output by Friday morning
NOAA, via Pivotal Weather

Here’s a wider look from NOAA at projected snowfall totals for all of Minnesota.

Snowfall projection for Minnesota
Snowfall projection for Minnesota
NOAA

Temperatures will hover in the 30s Thursday afternoon and evening. Roads will be slushy at first but will likely turn icy as temperatures fall Thursday evening.

Forecast high temperatures Thursday
Forecast high temperatures Thursday
NOAA

Another shot of snowfall of similar magnitude looks likely Saturday.

Stay tuned.

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