Frigid temperatures this weekend prompt cold weather advisories

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There are some interesting forecast model trends emerging for Thursday’s inbound weather system. 

It still looks like the heaviest snow with this system will fall across northeast Minnesota including the Duluth area and North Shore. And some of Wednesday’s afternoon forecast model runs have eased up even further on Thursday’s snowfall potential for the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota. 

Here’s the latest rundown on warnings, advisories, and storm specifics.

 have been issued for most of northeastern Minnesota. The warnings run from around Hinckley north through Duluth, the North Shore and Iron Range to Ely. 

The heaviest snowfall totals with this system will likely fall along and above the North Shore on the Sawtooth Mountains into the BWCA. Check out the wording from the warning zone along the North Shore. 

Most of central and southern Minnesota is under a 

 Thursday into Friday morning. That includes the Twin Cities area where considerably less snow will fall. 

This system is fighting an increasingly powerful March sun and falling again during the warmer afternoon hours in the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota. Temperatures will be above freezing once again across southern Minnesota Thursday from midday into the afternoon. 

That means the first couple hours of snow could melt on contact with the relatively mild pavement.

NOAA’s HRRR model is among those that are not super impressive for snowfall rates and totals around the Twin Cities but still bring respectable snow to northeast Minnesota. 

Note the likely change from rain (green) in the morning to snow (blue) around and after midday in the Twin Cities. 

I’m still leaning on the lighter end of snowfall totals overall for the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota. The forecast models today continue the trend of less snowfall in the south. The models I trust suggest as little as a couple of inches of slush, to around 4 to 5 inches in some pockets of southern Minnesota and the Twin Cities by late Thursday night. 

Here’s NOAA’s latest updated snowfall projection as of Wednesday afternoon. 

I’ve heard from many of you that you’re more than done with our barrage of near-weekly wintry storms that has been persistent since December. I’m with you.

The forecast models finally show a likely break next week, with milder temperatures. The European and American GFS models suggest highs in the 40s, to possibly near 50 degrees in southern Minnesota next week. 

Hang in there folks. I can’t say this is our last snow of the season, but we’re getting closer by the day.

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Paul Huttner

Author

The heaviest snow will fall across northeast Minnesota, including the Duluth area and North Shore. Winter storm warnings have been issued for most of northeastern Minnesota. Most of central and southern Minnesota is under a winter weather advisory Thursday into Friday morning. 

There are some interesting forecast model trends emerging for Thursday’s inbound weather system.

Worst of Thursday's storm north of Twin Cities

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