Messy Thursday commute; weekend looks chilly
Update on Thursday-Thursday night snow potential
Rain was transitioning to snow in the Twin Cities metro area at 1 p.m. and it has been snowing for several hours to the west and north. Strong winds are already causing severely reduced visibilities in portions of southwestern Minnesota.
The snow will continue the remainder of Thursday afternoon and into Thursday evening. You can expect a slow evening commute. Much of northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin will have snow into Friday.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern from noon today to 6 a.m. Friday:
Due to recent warm temps, the snow may melt on some main roads initially after the changeover from rain, then the snow will accumulate as temperatures continue to fall.
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Snow forecast
Here are National Weather Service forecast snow totals Thursday through Thursday night:
Snow totals Thursday and Friday are expected to be highest over northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin:
Warnings and advisories
A winter weather advisory (blue) covers much of Minnesota and parts of western Wisconsin Thursday and Thursday night:
Here are advisory details for the Twin Cities metro area and portions of Wisconsin:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1036 AM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023 MNZ052-053-060>063-068>070-077-085-093-WIZ014>016-023-170215- /O.CON.KMPX.WW.Y.0016.230316T1800Z-230317T1200Z/ Isanti-Chisago-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-Carver-Scott- Dakota-Rice-Steele-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-St. Croix- Including the cities of Cambridge, Center City, Minneapolis, Blaine, St Paul, Stillwater, Chanhassen, Chaska, Victoria, Shakopee, Hastings, Faribault, Owatonna, Albert Lea, Osceola, Rice Lake, Ladysmith, and Hudson 1036 AM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...Rain changing to snow today with blowing snow expected overnight. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. Winds gusting 35 to 40 mph. * WHERE...Portions of east central and south central Minnesota and northwest and west central Wisconsin. * WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions and reduced visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Road conditions can also be found at 511mn.org for Minnesota or 511wi.gov for Wisconsin.
A winter storm warning has been posted from Pine County of Minnesota into northwestern Wisconsin:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Duluth MN 355 AM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023 MNZ038-WIZ006>008-162100- /O.CON.KDLH.WS.W.0009.230316T1500Z-230317T1200Z/ Pine-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer- Including the cities of Pine City, Hinckley, Grantsburg, Spooner, and Hayward 355 AM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 8 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...In Minnesota, Pine County. In Wisconsin, Burnett, Washburn and Sawyer Counties. This includes the Tribal Lands of the Lac Courte Oreilles Reservation and the Mille Lacs Band, Hinckley and, Lena Lake areas. * WHEN...From 10 AM this morning to 7 AM CDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Road conditions can also be found at 511mn.org for Minnesota or 511wi.gov for Wisconsin.
A winter storm warning also covers much of northeastern Minnesota Thursday into Friday morning:
Here are the winter storm warning details:
355 AM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023 MNZ011-019-037-162100- /O.CON.KDLH.WS.W.0009.230316T1500Z-230317T1800Z/ North St. Louis-Central St. Louis-Carlton and South St. Louis- Including the cities of Ely, Hibbing, and Duluth 355 AM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM CDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...North St. Louis, Central St. Louis and Carlton and South St. Louis Counties. This includes the Tribal Lands of the Fond du Lac Band and the Bois Forte Band, Lake Vermilion and, Nett Lake areas. * WHEN...From 10 AM this morning to 1 PM CDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Road conditions can also be found at 511mn.org for Minnesota or 511wi.gov for Wisconsin.
Minnesota road conditions can be found here. Wisconsin road conditions can be found here.
You can find updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the Minnesota Public Radio News network, and on the MPR News live weather blog.
Chilly weekend
Saturday morning lows will be in the single digits and lower teens:
Saturday highs will be in the 20s, with teens in western Minnesota:
The average March 18 Twin Cities high temperature is 43 degrees, so Saturday’s highs in the mid-20s will be well below normal.
Sunday morning lows will be in the single digits:
Sunday highs will be in the 20s west, with some lower 30s east:
Mainly dry this weekend
Northern Minnesota and western Wisconsin could see some light snow Saturday morning, but the weekend will be mainly dry elsewhere.
NOAA’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern from 4 a.m. Saturday to 7 p.m. Sunday:
Programming note
You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. Saturday and Sunday.