Northern Minnesota is under a new alert until Friday at 7 p.m.

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Here comes our next potent wintry weather system.

March is determined to go out with a lion-like roar. We’ll see a mix of high winds, rain, ice, snow, and thunder in our inbound storm, with even a few severe storms possible in southeastern Minnesota. 

 have been issued for parts of southwestern Minnesota starting at 7 p.m. Friday evening. The combination of high winds to 50 mph and blowing snow will cause blizzard conditions Friday night into early Saturday. 

 remains in effect for the Twin Cities and most of central Minnesota. 

There are still a few differences among forecast models for eventual snowfall totals, but that’s pretty typical going into these systems. 

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s NAM 3 km model seems to have the right general idea — two main precipitation waves with breaks in between. The first wave blows through overnight into early Friday. The second, more potent wave arrives late Friday afternoon and Friday night. 

The heaviest burst of snow with this system arrives Friday night. Precipitation will be mainly rain from the Twin Cities southward Friday. 

Rain will likely change to a burst of heavy wet snow with high winds Friday evening for the Twin Cities. It may snow hard for several hours Friday night into the wee hours of Saturday. The snow will end from west to east early Saturday morning. 

Forecast models still show some wide variation in possible snowfall outcomes.  So forecast confidence is not super high as of Thursday afternoon. 

Forecast models are cranking out anywhere from 4 inches to more than a foot of snow around our region. Here's a good example of some extremes. 

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model drops around 5 inches across most of the Twin Cities, with some possible totals around a foot eastward into Wisconsin. 

NOAA’s North American Mesoscale models crank out around 10 inches in central Minnesota and the Twin Cities, with totals over a foot not far south and east of the Twin Cities!

There’s still uncertainty about eventual snowfall totals. The system has low-end bust and high-end boom potential depending on how long the intense snowfall bands are able to linger around eastern Minnesota. 

Stay tuned for possible forecast changes Friday before the snow flies for real.

Winds will ramp up Friday night with this storm. Wind gusts greater than 40 mph will blow snow sideways Friday night into early Saturday as the system’s pressure gradient reaches peak intensity. 

We’ll even see a few strong-to-severe thunderstorms between the Twin Cities and Iowa. 

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center paints a marginal risk (category 1) for severe storms Friday including Rochester and Winona. A slight risk (category 2) zone includes Albert Lea and areas close to the Iowa border. A higher enhanced to moderate zone runs through Iowa southward along the Mississippi River Valley. 

Stay tuned for likely upgrades to winter storm warnings early Friday for our region. 

Paul Huttner

Author

Our next wintry storm will bring snow and wind to Minnesota Friday into early Saturday.

Wintry mess nears; blizzard warning Friday night for far SW Minnesota

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