Rain, thunder, ice, snow through Thursday

We’re getting weather frequent flyer miles this year in Minnesota.

The main body of our next inbound storm arrives overnight into Thursday. This will bring a variety of precipitation types to different parts of Minnesota.

Let’s start with rain and thunder. Precipitation will be mostly rain in the southern third of Minnesota including the greater Twin Cities. Thunderstorms are already booming in southwestern Minnesota as I write this post. Additional waves will roll north from Iowa Wednesday night.

Tornado watches are up for much of western Iowa. A severe thunderstorm watch for northwestern Iowa includes Nobles and Jackson counties in southwestern Minnesota until 11 p.m. Wednesday night.

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Additional watches and severe weather warnings are possible across southern Minnesota overnight into Thursday. There is a marginal to slight risk of severe storms with hail and high winds for southern Minnesota. We may hear non-severe thunder across much of Minnesota overnight.

Severe weather risk areas 5 — Severe weather risk areas
NOAA, via Iowa Emergency Management

Another soaker

This system brings another soaking. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and other forecast models suggest another inch or two of precipitation with this system.

Here’s the latest European model precipitation output through Friday:

European model (ECMWF) precipitation output 2 — Precipitation output through Friday
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, via Pivotal Weather

Snow and ice up north

Temperatures will hover around the freezing mark across most of northern Minnesota with this system. That means another shot of ice and snow.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model shows multiple waves of rain and thunder in the south, with ice and snow coverage increasing across northern Minnesota into Friday morning.

The loop below runs between 7 p.m. Wednesday and 7 a.m. Friday.

NOAA HRRR model 2 — High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model between 7 p.m. Wednesday and 7 a.m. Friday
NOAA, via Tropical Tidbits

Ice and snowfall totals

As you can see at the top of this post, significant plowable snow is likely for northern Minnesota. There will also be a lighter icy glaze, especially in northeastern Minnesota.