Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Heavy thunderstorm potential late Wednesday night

Forecast models suggest scattered strong storms after midnight in some areas

NOAA NAM 3 km model
North American Mesoscale 3 km model between 10 p.m. Wednesday and 10 a.m. Thursday.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, via Tropical Tidbits

It feels like June out there, and our warmer more humid air mass has the potential to spark some strong storms Wednesday night into Thursday.

Highs will push 80 degrees in southern Minnesota Wednesday afternoon.

Forecast high temperatures Wednesday
Forecast high temperatures Wednesday
NOAA

Dew points are rising to around the 60-degree mark in Minnesota as a pool of moisture advects northward from the central Great Plains.

NOAA GFS model
Global Forecast System model dew point forecast for 7 p.m. Wednesday.
NOAA, via Tropical Tidbits

The combination of more moisture and warmer air will combine to increase thunderstorm chances overnight.

Several forecast models develop scattered thunderstorms in southern Minnesota overnight into Thursday morning. There are differences as usual in timing and coverage.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s NAM 3 km model suggests a cluster of storms developing in southwest Minnesota Wednesday evening moving into the greater Twin Cities area between about 3 a.m. and 9 a.m. Thursday morning.

The forecast model loop above runs between 10 p.m. Wednesday and 10 a.m. Thursday.

Locally heavy rainfall possible

There’s enough moisture in our more summery air mass to drop some locally heavy downpours in storms that develop. NOAA’s NAM 3 km model suggests localized multi-inch rainfall totals are possible in southern Minnesota Wednesday night into Thursday.

NOAA NAM precip
North American Mesoscale precipitation output through 7 p.m. Thursday
NOAA, via Pivotal Weather

Highs Thursday likely push the 80-degree mark once again in southern Minnesota, with 70s all the way north to Canada.

Forecast high temperatures Wednesday
Forecast high temperatures Wednesday
NOAA

It will feel more like June out there for the rest of this week.