Warm, humid into the weekend; scattered showers, thunderstorms

If you like steamy weather you’ll enjoy the next several days.

The Thursday high temperature at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport was 91 degrees. That’s well above the average June 1 Twin Cities high of 75 degrees.

Much of Minnesota and western Wisconsin saw Thursday highs in the 80s to lower 90s, It was cooler near Lake Superior. Most areas had Thursday dew points in the 60s to upper 50s, so it felt very summery.

Temperature trends

We’re in a stagnant weather pattern, so highs won’t vary much over the next few days.

Friday highs will be in the upper 80s to around 90 in most locations:

It’ll be cooler near Lake Superior.

Saturday highs will also be primarily in the upper 80s to around 90, but it’ll be cooler near Lake Superior:

Highs on Sunday will be similar:

Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to be around 90 degrees on Monday, followed by upper 80s Tuesday then mid 80s on Wednesday.

Above-normal temps may then linger through the end of next week and into the following weekend, according to the latest outlook from the NWS Climate Prediction Center:

Rain chances

Northwestern Minnesota and parts of north-central Minnesota will see some scattered strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday evening. There will also be a chance of very scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday evening elsewhere in Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

You can find updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the MPR News network. 

You can also check the following National Weather Service sites for updated weather info: Twin Cities, Duluth, La Crosse, Wis., Sioux Falls, S.D., Grand Forks, N.D.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will redevelop Friday afternoon and continue into Friday evening. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s High-Resolution Rapid-Refresh model shows the potential rain pattern from noon Friday to 11 p.m. Friday:

Minnesota and western Wisconsin could see scattered showers and thunderstorms anytime on Saturday and Saturday evening. Just an isolated shower/thunderstorm chance is seen for Sunday.

More hot days?

The Twin Cities had two days this May with a high temperature of 90 degrees or warmer. That May heat is often followed by a higher-than-normal number of hot days for the year, according to the Minnesota State Climatology Office:

Over recent decades, and including the current "normals" period of 1991-2020, the Twin Cities area has averaged 13 days per year with a high temperature of 90 degrees F or higher. But years with two or more 90 F high temperatures during May historically have tended to finish with far more hot days, averaging about 23 for the season. Such a large difference implies that hot years tend to start early. Of the years with at least two 90-degree F days in May in the Twin Cities, 88%, or 22 out of 25, ended the year above the average of thirteen 90 F days, and 72% (18 out of 25) had at least 20 such days.  

In other words, when we have observed multiple hot days in May historically, the year typically has gone on to produce more than the usual number of hot days also. Of course, this is not a prediction! It is only a statement of an apparently strong historical relationship between the number of hot days in May and the number of hot days during the rest of summer.

We’ll see how it plays out this year.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.