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We’re scanning the weather maps for rain again in the Huttner Weather Lab these days. 

Minnesota is trending dry again. And if current and forecast trends continue, much of the state will likely move into drought conditions in the next few weeks. 

Last week’s U.S. Drought Monitor update (above) shows abnormally dry conditions in Minnesota more than doubled from around 30 percent to 65 percent in just a week. A small corner in southwestern Minnesota is in moderate drought. 

Below-average rainfall has favored areas of central Minnesota over the past 30 days. You can see on the 30-day precipitation department map below that southwestern Minnesota has been wet but much of central Minnesota has run drier than average.

Southwestern Minnesota has seen several inches of rain in the past month. But much of that came in one large rainfall event. Much of central Minnesota has received less than an inch of rain in the past 30 days. 

June is the wettest month of the year on average in Minnesota. Much of Minnesota gets over 4 inches of rain on average in June. But the next 10 days look exceedingly dry.

Forecast models project little rain across Minnesota, with heavier rains in the western Dakotas into the Rockies. 

Here’s the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model rainfall output for the next 10 days:

Unless we get a significant pattern change, expect more of Minnesota to slide into drought in the next few weeks — for the third straight year. 

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Paul Huttner

Author

Minnesota is trending dry again. And if current and forecast trends continue, much of the state will likely move into drought conditions in the next few weeks. 


Much of Minnesota moving rapidly toward drought

U.S. Department of Agriculture, University of Nebraska-Lincoln

30-day precipitation departure from average 

Midwest Regional Climate Center

European model (ECMWF) precipitation output

Much of Minnesota moving rapidly toward drought

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