Scattered thundershowers across western Minnesota into Thursday

Local downpours but spotty coverage; rain may miss Twin Cities

North American Mesoscale 3 km model
North American Mesoscale 3 km model between midnight and 4 p.m. Thursday
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, via Tropical Tidbits

Much of Minnesota needs rain. The good news? Scattered thundershowers will drift slowly south across parts of west-central Minnesota overnight into Thursday.

But coverage will be spotty and localized, and much of eastern Minnesota and probably the Twin Cities will miss out on the rain.

As of this post late Wednesday afternoon, a batch of showers and thunderstorms is dropping some rain around Bemidji and Park Rapids in north-central Minnesota. The cells are drifting slowly south and producing local downpours and lightning.

MPR weather interactive radar
MPR weather interactive radar.
NOAA, via mprnews.org

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s NAM 3 km resolution model continues the trend of scattered thundershowers drifting southward into Thursday. The loop at the top of this post runs between midnight Wednesday and 4 p.m. Thursday.

Dry and drier

Forecast models continue the trend of dryness across most of Minnesota over the next week. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model for the next 10 days favors abundant rainfall across western South Dakota but little rain for Minnesota.

NOAA’s 6 to 10-day precipitation outlook favors average to drier-than-average precipitation across our region.

NOAA 6 to 10-day precipitation outlook
6 to 10-day precipitation outlook.

And the temperature outlooks continue to show a warm bias.

NOAA 6 to 10-day temperature outlook
6 to 10-day temperature outlook.

Minnesota rode the edge of one of Canada’s warmest Mays on record. So far in June, the Twin Cities region is running a remarkable 13 degrees warmer than average.

Stay tuned.