Hotter Monday; Update on thunderstorm chances for Monday and July Fourth
Severe weather outlooks have been updated
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The Sunday high temperature at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport was 90 degrees, which is 7 degrees warmer than the average July 2 high in the Twin Cities.
There have been 12 days this year with an official Twin Cities high of 90 degrees or warmer. We’ve almost reached the Twin Cities average annual total of 13 days with a high of 90 or warmer.
Temperature trends
Monday high temps will reach well into the 90s in the southern half of Minnesota and portions of western Wisconsin:
The Twin Cities metro area will probably hit the mid 90s, with a few higher temps possible. Northern Minnesota will see mainly 80s.
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Tuesday high temps will range from 70s in northern Minnesota to lower 90s in the southeast:
You might not need to run your air conditioner on Wednesday or Thursday, with Twin Cities highs in the upper 70s. Lower 80s are on tap for Friday’s highs.
Update on thunderstorm chances
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will linger into Sunday evening in parts of central and west-central Minnesota.
A stray show is possible Monday morning, then scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will favor northern and west-central Minnesota until late afternoon.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible anywhere in Minnesota and western Wisconsin from late Monday afternoon into Monday evening.
The NWS Storm Prediction Center shows a slight risk (yellow) of severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening in portions of west-central and southwestern Minnesota:
A marginal risk (darker green) covers much of the remainder of Minnesota, plus parts of western Wisconsin, Monday afternoon into Monday night.
Slight risk means that scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, marginal risk indicates that an isolated severe thunderstorm is possible:
The risk of scattered severe thunderstorms (yellow) expands to cover most of southern and central Minnesota, plus western Wisconsin and portions of northeastern Minnesota, Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening:
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Finite-Volumn Cubed Sphere (FV3) forecast model shows the potential rain pattern from 7 a.m. Tuesday to 7 p.m. Tuesday:
NOAA’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) model shows a somewhat different rain pattern from 7 a.m. Tuesday to 11 p.m. Tuesday:
Tuesday thunderstorm coverage will be affected by the timing of an approaching cold front plus the amount of sunshine, which will add to destabilization of the atmosphere.
Be prepared to see some thunderstorms at times Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening and make sure that you have a way to receive weather information and warnings.
You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the MPR News network. You can find the latest radar here.
You can also check these National Weather Service sites for updated weather info: Twin Cities, Duluth, La Crosse, Wis., Sioux Falls and Grand Forks.
Programming note
You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.
