Weekend weather: Pleasant; rain chances later Sunday in northern MN

Temperatures have been several degrees below normal for the past couple of days, but we’ll see a return to near-normal temps on Sunday.

The average Twin Cities high temperature is 84 degrees on July 8. I expect many spots in the Twin Cities metro area to top out around 80 degrees Saturday. Much of Minnesota and western Wisconsin will have highs in the 70s Saturday afternoon:

There will be some 60s up along the North Shore of Lake Superior.

Sunday highs will reach the 80s in most areas, with 70s in northeastern and north-central Minnesota:

Rain chances

Parts of far northern Minnesota are seeing showers and thunderstorms at midday Friday. The chance of showers and thunderstorms will be highest Friday afternoon in the northern third of Minnesota.

There could be some scattered showers and thunderstorms in roughly the northern half of Minnesota, plus parts of northwestern Wisconsin, Friday evening.

Portions of far southern Minnesota will see rain showers at times Friday afternoon and evening.

You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the MPR News network. You can find the latest radar here.

You can also check these National Weather Service sites for updated weather info: Twin Cities, Duluth, La Crosse, Wis., Sioux Falls and Grand Forks.

The daylight hours of Saturday look dry across most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to return to northern Minnesota Sunday afternoon, then the scattered showers and thunderstorms could spread to include parts of central Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin Sunday evening.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere (FV3) forecast model shows the potential rain pattern from 4 a.m. Sunday to 7 p.m. Sunday:

Check forecast updates.

Drought update

This week’s report from the U.S. Drought Monitor shows that 56.73 percent of Minnesota is now in drought.

Specifically, 8.48 percent of Minnesota (shaded orange) is in severe drought, with 48.25 percent (shaded beige) in moderate drought:

The yellow-shaded areas — 41.29 percent of Minnesota — are abnormally dry, but not yet in drought; 98 percent of Minnesota is either abnormally dry or in drought.

It should be noted that the rainfall data cutoff for the map is 7 a.m. on the Fourth of July. The late-morning July Fourth downpours that dropped between one-half inch and 1 inch of rain in parts of Hennepin County and the eastern Twin Cities metro area are not included in the drought analysis.

Here’s the rainfall from 7 a.m. on July 4 to 7 a.m. on July 5 that was not factored into the drought analysis:

Much of Iowa and Wisconsin are also in drought, with large areas of severe drought in southern Wisconsin and across much of Iowa. There are smaller areas of extreme drought (shaded red) in Iowa and Wisconsin:

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.