Severe thunderstorm watch until midnight includes southeast Minnesota, western Wisconsin

Updated: 6:55 p.m.

The severe thunderstorm watch zone has been expanded to include parts of southeast Minnesota until midnight Tuesday.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 471 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

655 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Iowa Southern Minnesota

* Effective this Monday night from 655 PM until Midnight CDT.

* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms, at least on an isolated basis, should continue to develop across far southern Minnesota and northern Iowa, with the strongest storms capable of hail and locally damaging winds this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west of Mason City IA to 50 miles east southeast of Rochester MN.

Update 6:10 pm Monday

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has issued a severe thunderstorm watch that includes western Wisconsin right up the Minnesota border near the eastern Twin Cities.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 470 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

555 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Michigan Northern and Central Wisconsin Lake Michigan Lake Superior * Effective this Monday afternoon from 555 PM until Midnight CDT.

* Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Storms will continue to develop west to east along a southward-progressing front, with hail and locally damaging winds as the primary hazards. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles west of Eau Claire WI to 55 miles north northeast of Pellston MI.

Monday brought the 14th day of 90-degree heat in 2023 to the Twin Cities.

The temperature topped out at 93 degrees Monday afternoon at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport.

That heat combined with dew points in the 60s to create an atmosphere capable of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms.

I emphasize the word scattered in the forecast Monday night.

It looks like cells will be spotty in terms of coverage. But those that do get going could grow strong to potentially severe. You can see the latest radar images here on the MPR News weather interactive radar.

Cooler Tuesday

Tuesday brings cooler breezes to southern Minnesota. Highs will be in the 70s across most of Minnesota for the next couple of days.

Overnight lows will be in the comfy 50s across most of Minnesota. Good sleeping weather.

Spotty rain chances

Widespread rainfall is often hard to come by in July. Storms that do form tend to be more localized in coverage, so it’s not likely we’ll see widespread drought-denting rains this week.

But there are chances for scattered rain and thunder this week. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model is similar to others that show spotty rain chances. The loop below runs between 1 p.m. Tuesday and 1 p.m. Friday.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model portrays the spotty nature of potential rainfall this week. Most areas will likely see less than one-quarter inch. There may be a few lucky stripes with up to an inch of rain this week.

In the longer term, we’ll need a more significant, wetter pattern change to reduce drought intensity over Minnesota.

Stay tuned.