Driest period on record for St. Cloud since May 1

This week’s U.S. Drought Monitor shows what we expected. But rainfall deficits are increasing at a record pace in parts of Minnesota this year.

Example? St. Cloud.

This is now the driest period on record (since the 1800s) in St. Cloud since May 1. The overall rainfall deficit in St. Cloud since May 1 is now about 7.5 inches. That means in an average year, St. Cloud would have received another 7.5 inches of rain between May 1 and July 19.

Wednesday’s rainfall was spotty across central and southern MInnesota once again.

The impacts of our deepening drought are evident across much of Minnesota. Lakes and rivers are falling fast. Ponds and marshes are very low. Non-irrigated grass is brown in many areas. Crops are beginning to show signs of stress in some fields.

Little rainfall ahead

It’s very difficult to get a pattern change that brings widespread beneficial rainfall to Minnesota in late July and August. Climatologically we’re now moving through the driest period of the summer. We can get heavy localized downpours from thunderstorms.

But much of the rain from heavy downpours runs off instead of soaking into the ground. That can help lake and river levels but does less for recharging soils.

Most forecast models crank out less than .25” of rainfall in the next 10 days for central and southern Minnesota. We may see more rainfall up north.

Here’s the European model precipitation output for the next 10 days. Other forecast models look similar.

Unless we get a pattern change that’s currently not in the forecast models, all signs suggest the drought will continue to deepen over the next few weeks.

Stay tuned.