Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Extreme drought emerges; extreme heat likely next week

Forecast models approaching 100 degrees in the Upper Midwest next week.

U.S. Drought Monitor for Minnesota
U.S. Drought Monitor for Minnesota.
USDA/UNL

Extreme drought has returned to Minnesota.

This week’s U.S. Drought Monitor update shows extreme drought popping up in some areas near the Twin Cities and Rochester. (Deep red colors on map above)

It’s not a big surprise considering the gorwing rainfall deficits around parts of MInnesota. The rainfall deficit compared to the average has grown to more than 5 inches now at MSP Airport since June 1. Most of Minnesota has recorded less than half of average rainfall in the past 30 days.

30-day precipitation departure from average
30-day precipitation departure from average.
Midwest Regional Climate Center

Extreme heat likely next week

I’ve been talking about the potential for a significant Midwest heatwave next week for days now. Thursday’s forecast models continue the trend.

NOAA 6 to 10-day temperature outlook
NOAA 6 to 10-day temperature outlook.
NOAA

NOAA’s upper air (500 millibar) forecast shows a heat dome building across the Upper Midwest next week. This type of upper-level pattern translates to extreme heat at the ground where we live.

The loop below runs between Sunday and next Thursday.

Upper air forecast map for
Upper air forecast map for next week.
NOAA via tropical tidbits

Both the European and American GFS models are cranking out high temperatures between 95 and 100 degrees next week for much of the Dakotas and Minnesota.

NOAA GFS model 2
NOAA GFS model temperature forecast for Tuesday, July 25.
NOAA via pivotal weather

It looks like next week could be the hottest week of summer for many locations.

Stay tuned.