Very warm this week, with just spotty rain chances

Our Sunday sunshine will be filtered by smoke from Canadian wildfires at times. Much of the smoke is expected to remain aloft over the Twin Cities metro area and southern Minnesota, but more of the smoke will spread to lower levels elsewhere.

Air quality will be in the unhealthy for sensitive groups category in much of northern Minnesota and in portions of central Minnesota.

The Minnesota Pollution Control Agency continues an air quality alert today and until 6 p.m. Monday in the orange-shaded counties of northern and central Minnesota:

Here are the alert details,

Air quality is expected to reach the orange AQI category in central and northern Minn., which is unhealthy for sensitive groups.

The Minnesota Pollution Control Agency (MPCA) has issued an air quality alert for central and northern Minn. The alert takes effect at 4 p.m. on Saturday, July 22, and runs until 6 p.m. on Monday, July 24. The affected area includes Brainerd, Alexandria, Hinckley, St. Cloud, Bemidji, International Falls, Two Harbors, Hibbing, Ely, Duluth, Roseau, and the tribal nations of Mille Lacs, Leech Lake, Red Lake, Grand Portage, and Fond du Lac.

A narrow band of heavy smoke located across southern Manitoba will be transported towards Minn. by northwest winds. This smoke originated from wildfires in northern Alberta and British Columbia. Ground-level smoke will reach northern Minn. by 4 p.m. on Saturday, behind a cold front. Fine particle levels will reach the orange (Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups) category across north central Minn. by late afternoon Saturday and will persist through the overnight. 

On Sunday, as the smoke band continues to move across northern Minn. additional smoke will reach the ground across northeast and central Minn. As daytime heating increases surface temperatures and mixes the atmosphere, elevated smoke will reach the ground around midday. Fine particle levels will be in the orange category across northern and central Minn. on Sunday. Winds will become westerly on Monday. The area of ground-level smoke will begin to move east and exit the state. Air quality should improve by Monday morning across central and north central Minn. However, air quality is expected to remain in the orange category across northeast Minn. on Monday.

Fine particle levels are expected to reach the orange air quality index (AQI) category, a level considered unhealthy for sensitive groups, across central and northern Minn. In the orange area, sensitive groups should limit prolonged or heavy exertion and time spent outdoors.

You can check the hourly Minnesota air quality measurements here.

The air quality alert does not include the Twin Cities metro area.

Saturday rain recap

The official Twin Cities rainfall total (measured at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport) is 2.05 inches below normal so far this month and 5.70 inches below normal since June 1.

Meaningful rainfall was spotty yesterday. Here’s the 24 hour rainfall map ending at 7 a.m. this Sunday:

Portions of Wisconsin and eastern Minnesota saw some welcome rain Saturday and Saturday evening. Parts of Sherburne County and eastern Wright County had between 1.50 inches and 2 inches of rain. The rain completely missed many spots in the southwest metro, and Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport didn’t record any rain at all.

Rain chances

Scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and early Sunday evening in portions of northern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin. A separate area of showers and thunderstorms could affect parts of western Minnesota overnight.

Spotty showers and thunderstorms are also possible Monday and Monday evening. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential rain pattern from 5 a.m. Monday to 11 p.m. Monday:

NOAA’s FV3 model shows the following rain pattern for that same time period:

Pay more attention to the scattered nature of the rain than the exact location of the rain at any point in time.

You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the MPR News network. You can check the MPR radar here.

You can also check these National Weather Service sites for updated weather info: Twin Cities, Duluth, La Crosse, Wis., Sioux Falls, S.D., and Grand Forks, N.D.

Temperature trends

The average Twin Cities high temperature is 84 degrees this time of year. Metro area highs are expected to reach the upper 80s Sunday afternoon.

Most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin will have Sunday highs in the 80s, but parts of north-central and northeastern Minnesota will top out in the 70s.

Monday high temperatures will be in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees from the Red River Valley through central and southern Minnesota and into west-central WIsconsin:

There will be some 70s in northeastern Minnesota.

Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach the lower 90s on Tuesday, followed by upper 90s Wednesday and Thursday then lower 90s on Friday.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.