90s again Thursday; wetter pattern emerging this weekend
Forecast models suggest significant rainfall Sunday
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The summer of 2023 is giving us our money’s worth for heat.
Wednesday was the 21st day of 90-degree heat this year at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport.
That’s well above the long-term climatic average of 13 days of 90s annually in the Twin Cities.
Thursday very likely brings our 22nd day of 90-degree heat this year to the Twin Cities and most of southern and western Minnesota.
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Thursday’s 90-degree temperatures may be the last for a little while. A cooler weather pattern is setting up that will bring highs in the 70s and 80s to Minnesota as we move into the upcoming weekend.
Wetter pattern emerging?
I’m encouraged by the looks of multiple forecast models this week for increased rainfall coverage starting this weekend. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model is among the most aggressive for weekend rainfall totals.
The usually trusty Euro develops an impressive low-pressure system and tracks it across South Dakota into southern Minnesota this weekend.
The loop below runs between 7 p.m. Saturday and 7 a.m. Monday.
The European model’s precipitation output with the possible weekend system is impressive. It projects a swath of between 1 and 4 inches across southern Minnesota by Monday morning.
The European model also projects a second rain event next week. The 10-day precipitation output cranks out anywhere from 2 to around 6 inches of rainfall across South Dakota and southern Minnesota.
Of course, it’s still too early for high confidence in eventual rainfall coverage and totals. But this is the best chance for widespread significant rainfall I’ve seen on forecast models in a couple of months.
Stay tuned.
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