Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Weekend soaker? Models bring rain chances this weekend

Forecast models differ on timing and eventual rainfall totals

Twin Cities area forecast at a glance
Twin Cities area forecast at a glance.
Twin Cities National Weather Service office

Weather fingers are crossed. And toes.

This weekend’s forecast model output brings the best chance for widespread rainfall in weeks to southern Minnesota including the Twin Cities area.

Of course, there are still model differences in eventual rainfall timing, coverage and totals. But the maps look promising for a decent soaking in the drought zone we call Minnesota for the first time in weeks.

Slowly moving low-pressure system

The forecast models track a relatively slow-moving low-pressure system to our south this weekend.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model is among those that crank out widespread rain and thunder cells roaming across southern Minnesota Saturday and Sunday. The forecast model loop below runs between 7 a.m. Saturday and 1 a.m. Monday.

European model (ECMWF) rainfall forecast
European model between 7 a.m. Saturday and 1 a.m. Monday
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, via Pivotal Weather

Overall rainfall totals look variable once again. Here is the European model rainfall output for this weekend:

European model (ECMWF) precipitation output
Precipitation output forecast through 1 a.m. Monday
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, via Pivotal Weather

Let’s see where the forecast models are on rain coverage Friday.

Stay tuned.