Hurricane Idalia could bring 10 feet of surge to Florida's Big Bend coast
Tampa Bay forecast for 4 to 6 feet of surge.
Here comes the storm storm surge.
Hurricane Idalia is expected to make landfall in Florida’s Big Bend area early Wednesday morning.
The current forecast pegs Idalia as a Category 3 major hurricane at landfall. That is strong enough to drive a massive storm surge that could exceed 10 feet into the low-lying Big Bend area. A storm surge of 4 to 6 feet is forecast for the Tamba Bay area. (map above)
Idalia is strengthing over record warm water in the Gulf of Mexico.
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Satellite loops on Tuesday afternoon show Idalia is better organized. Idalia appears to be forming a distinct eye as of late Tuesday on NOAA’s GOES-16 infrared loop below.
NOAA’s messages about storm surge are eerie. The Big Bend is so low, that I have seen estimates for several feet of storm surge up to 10 miles inland in those areas.
Catastrophic impacts from storm surge inundation of 10 to 15 feet above ground level and destructive waves are expected somewhere between Aucilla River and Yankeetown, Florida. Life-threatening storm surge inundation is likely elsewhere along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.