Hurricane Lee likely to become a major hurricane

Most models keep Lee out to sea, but East Coast will need to keep watch

Hurricane Lee
Hurricane Lee satellite loop Wednesday
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

There’s a new hurricane to watch in the tropical Atlantic.

Hurricane Lee is still churning more than 1,000 miles east of the Leeward Islands. But it’s getting the attention of forecasters on the United States East Coast.

Lee reached hurricane status Wednesday afternoon.

BULLETIN Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 6

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023

500 PM AST Wed Sep 06 2023

...LEE STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE... ...LIKELY TO INTENSIFY INTO AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE BY EARLY SATURDAY...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION -

-- LOCATION...14.9N 46.4W ABOUT 1130 MI...1815 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES

Warm water and a favorable atmosphere over the Atlantic are expected to help Lee intensify in the coming days. Forecasts call for Lee to reach major hurricane strength as it tracks northwest over the next week.

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Hurricane Lee forecast track
Hurricane Lee forecast track.
NOAA, National Hurricane Center

Most models crank Lee’s intensity up to Category 4 strength.

Hurricane Lee model intensity forecasts
Hurricane Lee model intensity forecasts
NOAA, via spaghettimodels.com

Fish storm?

The majority of forecast models keep Lee on a northwest track for the next several days, then begin to curve Lee rapidly north next week.

Hurricane Lee model forecast tracks
Hurricane Lee model forecast tracks
NOAA, via spaghettimodels.com

But forecasts a week out can be prone to unseen shifts in the upper winds and larger hurricane steering patterns. Lee is currently forecast to come close enough to the U.S. week that any westward track shift could bring the system dangerously close to the East Coast.

European model (ECMWF) 240 hour forecast
Forecast 7 a.m., Saturday Sept. 16.
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, via Pivotal Weather

Lee is most likely to miss the eastern U.S. next week, but it will need to be watched closely.

Stay tuned.