Another wintry storm Friday

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Rain is on the way to parts of Minnesota and the Upper Midwest this weekend, but forecast models differ as usual as to where the heaviest rainfall will land. 

Most of Minnesota desperately needs a good soaking rain. Many locations in Minnesota have accumulated rainfall deficits of 8 to 10 inches over the summer. 

Let’s look at the various forecast model solutions for rainfall potential through this upcoming weekend. 

Forecast models are tracking a slowly moving low-pressure system into the northern Great Plains this weekend. Recent forecast model runs show a westward trend in the surface low track. If that verifies it may focus the heaviest rainfall zone across western Minnesota and the Dakotas. 

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model tracks the low-pressure system into North Dakota this weekend then bumps it east into Minnesota Monday.

Occasional scattered rain and thunder bands will rotate around the system this weekend. The forecast model loop below runs between 7 p.m. Friday and 7 a.m. Monday. 

Most forecast model solutions focus the heaviest rainfall across the Dakotas and western Minnesota. There is also an emerging trend that shows a sharp rainfall cutoff on the eastern edge of the system in eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin. 

If that pans out, we could see multi-inch rainfall across central Minnesota and little rainfall as you move into Wisconsin. That would be an unfortunate outcome for the drought zone in eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. 

Here’s a look at three forecast model rainfall solutions, starting with the lowest totals for the Twin Cities area. 

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model projects around an inch in the Twin Cities area. Note the lesser totals east and multi-inch rainfall potential to the west. 

NOAA’s Global Forecast System model also projects around an inch for the greater Twin Cities area. The GFS keeps the heaviest rainfall in the Dakotas with around an inch for much of Minnesota. 

And finally, the Environment Canada model is the most aggressive with rainfall totals closer to the greater Twin Cities. It projects multi-inch rainfall in or near the Twin Cities. Note the sharp precipitation cutoff to the east. 

So it remains to be determined how much rain will fall this weekend into Monday. The forecast models also differ on where the heaviest rains will occur, but current forecast trends favor western Minnesota and the Dakotas. 

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Paul Huttner

Author

Rain is coming to the Upper Midwest this weekend. 

Rain gauge at the Weather Lab shows another .83" Friday. 

Paul Huttner | MPR News file

NOAA via tropical tidbits

European model (ECMWF) precipitation output

Some parts of Minnesota could see heavy rainfall this weekend

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