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More meaningful rain is on the way for southern Minnesota. 

As we try and work our way out of drought, we have to do it one system at a time. The next system looks promising for delivering some significant rainfall from the Twin Cities and most of southern Minnesota.

Let’s break down the system and rainfall potential. 

Forecast models basically agree on tracking a slowly moving low-pressure system across Iowa Friday. This track is favorable for a widespread precipitation shield across Iowa and southern Minnesota. 

If the system moves as currently modeled, rain would begin in southern Minnesota on Thursday and then peak in coverage and intensity on Friday. The Canadian model is similar to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System solution. 

The loop below runs between 7 a.m. Thursday and 7 a.m. Saturday. 

Because this system is moving slowly, the duration of rainfall may span two or three days. That will mean plenty of time for rainfall totals to add up across southern Minnesota and Iowa. 

NOAA’s Global Forecast System model cranks out widespread 1 to 3-inch rainfall totals across the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota from Thursday through Saturday. 

The Canadian model is even more aggressive with some 4 to 5-inch totals locally. 

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model also lays out multi-inch rainfall across southern Minnesota. 

If this storm manages to drop the currently forecast rainfall totals it will put another dent in drought across southern Minnesota.

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Paul Huttner

Author

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model cranks out widespread 1 to 3-inch rainfall totals across the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota from Thursday through Saturday. 

NOAA via pivotal weather 

Environment Canada via pivotal weather

European model (ECMWF) precipitation output

Chances grow for soaking rainfall by Friday

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