Soaking rains moving in Thursday and Friday

Multi-inch rainfall totals likely across much of Minnesota

Twin Cities area forecast at a glance
Rainfall forecast
Twin Cities National Weather Service office

Update 5:10 pm Wednesday:

The latest forecast models suggest most of Thursday morning will be dry in the Twin Cities. Most models indicate rain developing in southern Minnesota Thursday morning, then spreading north into the Twin Cities and central Minnesota from midday into the afternoon hours.

It still looks like heavier rainfall bands will rotate through Minnesota Thursday night through Friday.

Here’s NOAA’s FV3 model which runs between 7 a.m. Thursday and 7 p.m. Friday. Note the brighter colors showing heavier rain cells with possible thunder.

Create a More Connected Minnesota

MPR News is your trusted resource for the news you need. With your support, MPR News brings accessible, courageous journalism and authentic conversation to everyone - free of paywalls and barriers. Your gift makes a difference.

NOAA FV3 model
NOAA FV3 model.
NOAA via tropical tidbits

Here comes our next much-needed rainfall event. A slowly moving low-pressure system will push rain into southern Minnesota overnight into Thursday morning.

Rainfall will spread north Thursday and increase in the Twin Cities area and central Minnesota from the midday through the afternoon hours. The heaviest rainfall arrives Thursday night into Friday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model tracks the low and rain shield from Thursday into Saturday. The forecast model loop below runs between 7 a.m. Thursday and 7 a.m. Saturday.

NOAA GFS model
Global Forecast System model between 7 a.m. Thursday and 7 a.m. Saturday.
NOAA, via Tropical Tidbits

Most of the rain will end on Saturday.

Multi-inch rainfall likely

This system has plenty of moisture to work with. It will track slowly through Iowa Friday, which is a favorable track for longer-duration rainfall across central and southern Minnesota.

Forecast models favor a wide zone of 1 to 3 inches across central and southern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities area. Locally a few models crank out some rainfall totals of 4 inches or more.

Here’s NOAA’s Global Forecast System model rainfall output through Saturday:

NOAA GFS precipitation output
Global Forecast System precipitation output through Saturday
NOAA, via Pivotal Weather

The Canadian model also lays out widespread soaking rains. Check out the 4-inch totals in southwestern Minnesota:

Canadian model precipitation output
Canadian model precipitation output through Saturday
Environment Canada, via Pivotal Weather

And here’s the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model rainfall output:

European model (ECMWF) precipitation output
Precipitation output forecast through Saturday
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, via Pivotal Weather

Areas that pick up 2 to 4 inches of rainfall this week could show another improvement in next week’s drought report.

Stay tuned.