Wintry mix spreads across Minnesota

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The latest forecast models suggest most of Thursday morning will be dry in the Twin Cities. Most models indicate rain developing in southern Minnesota Thursday morning, then spreading north into the Twin Cities and central Minnesota from midday into the afternoon hours.

It still looks like heavier rainfall bands will rotate through Minnesota Thursday night through Friday.

Here’s NOAA’s FV3 model which runs between 7 a.m. Thursday and 7 p.m. Friday. Note the brighter colors showing heavier rain cells with possible thunder. 

Here comes our next much-needed rainfall event. A slowly moving low-pressure system will push rain into southern Minnesota overnight into Thursday morning. 

Rainfall will spread north Thursday and increase in the Twin Cities area and central Minnesota from the midday through the afternoon hours. The heaviest rainfall arrives Thursday night into Friday. 

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model tracks the low and rain shield from Thursday into Saturday. The forecast model loop below runs between 7 a.m. Thursday and 7 a.m. Saturday.  

This system has plenty of moisture to work with. It will track slowly through Iowa Friday, which is a favorable track for longer-duration rainfall across central and southern Minnesota. 

Forecast models favor a wide zone of 1 to 3 inches across central and southern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities area. Locally a few models crank out some rainfall totals of 4 inches or more.

Here’s NOAA’s Global Forecast System model rainfall output through Saturday:

The Canadian model also lays out widespread soaking rains. Check out the 4-inch totals in southwestern Minnesota:

And here’s the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model rainfall output:

Areas that pick up 2 to 4 inches of rainfall this week could show another improvement in next week’s drought report.

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Paul Huttner

Author

A slowly moving rain system will drop widespread significant rainfall. 

Twin Cities National Weather Service

NOAA via tropical tidbits

NOAA via pivotal weather 

Environment Canada via pivotal weather

European model (ECMWF) precipitation output

Soaking rains moving in Thursday and Friday

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