Wintry mix spreads across Minnesota

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A low-pressure system is sliding through Minnesota from northwest to southeast this Wednesday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s NAM 3 km model shows the low-pressure center near the Twin Cities Wednesday afternoon, with mainly light to a few moderate showers swirling around the low as it spins into Wisconsin Thursday. 

The forecast model loop below runs between 3 p.m. Wednesday and 1 p.m. Thursday. 

Overall rainfall totals will be light and generally under one-quarter inch in southern Minnesota. Brainerd in central Minnesota and parts of northwestern Minnesota including Bemidji and Moorhead have already recorded more than one-quarter inch. 

Our current system is akin to the Alberta clippers we track in the winter months. Fortunately, this one is warm enough for rain instead of snow. A few forecast models suggest we may not get as lucky late next week. 

Meteorologists know to take forecast models more than a week out with a big pile of salt. And NOAA’s Global Forecast System model has a reputation as being too cold, and sometimes off the charts, so to speak. 

But in a few model runs this week, the Canadian model has also shifted into snowy mode across parts of Minnesota late next week.

When a chance of snow shows up in multiple forecast models, over multiple model runs it rightfully gets our attention. With that caveat, here’s NOAA’s GFS model forecast image for next Friday, Oct. 27. 

You can see it lays out a potentially big swath of snow across much of Minnesota.

But you can see the Canadian model runs Wednesday morning kept precipitation as mostly rain across Minnesota.

And the usually trusty European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model also suggests temperatures warm enough for mostly rain late next week.

At this point, I’m leaning toward a system that would produce mostly rain for Minnesota late next week, but it appears close enough to freezing that we’re going to have to watch closely for a possible snow event.

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Paul Huttner

Author

Rain and drizzle across much of Minnesota through Wednesday night.

Rainy Wednesday; some models signal snow late next week

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