Frigid temperatures this weekend prompt cold weather advisories

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Our Friday cold front leaves little doubt that the seasonal transition is underway in Minnesota. 

As we look ahead to winter, one major factor is likely to drive our overall winter conditions. A moderate to strong to very strong 

 is brewing in the tropical Pacific Ocean. That extra warm ocean water thousands of miles from Minnesota statistically produces milder and 

We still get winter in Minnesota during El Niño years. We still get snow. We still get subzero temperature outbreaks. 

But when you add it all up over the course of a season? We’ll likely feel like this upcoming winter is a bargain compared to last winter’s 90-inch snow blitz in the Twin Cities. 

El Niño is a state of abnormally warm water in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The magnitude of warming above average indicates the level of El Niño. 

So what is a Super El Niño? While the term is not an official category used by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, it is often used by meteorologists to describe the strongest level of El Niño.

Frankly, it’s more conversational than “historically strong.” I mean, we have supermoons, so why not Super El Niño’s?

Here is a great description of the thresholds for different El Niño classifications from the Minnesota State Climatology Office (my italics):

So under my terminology in this post, a Super El Niño event correlates to sea surface temperature anomalies of at least 2.0 C above average. 

 are already well above average in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The latest weekly Niño index values range from 1 degree to 2.6 degrees Celsius above average in different regions. So we’re already officially in moderate to Super El Niño territory across the tropical Pacific basin. 

Model forecasts for this upcoming winter range center around a strong El Niño event, but several models produce sea surface temperatures greater than +2.0 C this winter. I’ve highlighted those on the chart below. 

So a strong to historically strong Super El Niño event is likely this winter. 

Here’s NOAA’s latest look at the odds:

There’s a strong correlation between milder and less snowy than average weather for Minnesota during El Niño winters. Overall the correlation is about 70 to 80 percent for milder-than-average winters and less snow. 

El Nino winters average about 1.8 degrees warmer overall for Minnesota. They also produce about 22 percent less snowfall (12.7 inches less) in the Twin Cities compared to long-term averages.

 from The Minnesota State Climatology Office.

So the odds strongly favor a milder-than-average winter in Minnesota with less-than-average snowfall.

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Paul Huttner

Author

A Super El Niño is possible this winter. That historically produces milder and less snowy winters in the Upper Midwest. 

'Super' El Niño favors milder, less snowy winter for Minnesota

NOAA

Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies 

El Niño historical impacts on Minnesota 

'Super' El Niño favors milder, less snowy winter for Minnesota

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