Milder temperatures ahead on the weather maps
Highs in the 50s may return to Minnesota late next week.
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It appears our early-season snowfall won’t stick around this year.
The weather maps across the Upper Midwest favor gradually milder air in the next few days. By late next week, there are signs we may have a more substantial warming trend.
Low stratus season
I am always reminded that November and December bring the cloudiest months of the year on average to Minnesota.
The long-term historical averages show that the sun shines only 39 percent of the time in the Twin Cities in November. That means about 6 in 10 days are cloudy on average.
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So I’m looking forward to sunnier days ahead this week.
Fortunately, the next few days look sunnier across most of Minnesota. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model shows the low cloud cover breaking up across our region. The forecast model loop below runs between 1 p.m. Wednesday and 7 p.m. Friday.
Temperatures will respond upwards with more sunshine in the next few days. Highs should reach 50 degrees again in southern Minnesota (and maybe the southern Twin Cities) by Friday afternoon.
I have a hunch the temperature forecast map below is a little conservative for Friday.
50 ahead by next weekend?
Forecast models are usually better with temperature trends than precipitation a week or more ahead of time. That’s why it seems reasonable that milder air may slide back into Minnesota by the weekend of Nov. 11-12.
Check out NOAA’s Global Forecast System model. It suggests milder air masses in the 50s may ease into central and southern Minnesota again in about 10 days. The forecast model loop below runs between Nov. 11 and 13.
NOAA’s latest 8 to 14-day temperature outlook favors equal chances of above or below-average temperatures. But notice the mild bias edging into Minnesota from the west.
This is a seasonally critical time of year that I’m always watching in Minnesota. If we get early persistent cold and snow, it can set the tone for a cold and snowy start to the cold season.
Right now the odds seem to favor a return to slightly milder weather. That could extend our lingering fall deeper into November this year.
Stay tuned.
