Mild temps Sunday and Monday; rain chances highest in northern Minnesota

Daylight saving time ended early Sunday, so the sun will set before 5 p.m. today. I know, that early sunset will take awhile to get used to.

Gusty winds

Southerly winds will increase this afternoon as a low pressure system moves closer. Wind gusts will be over 20 mph this afternoon in central and southern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities metro area. Parts of southwestern Minnesota will see wind gusts over 30 mph at times.

Rain chances highest north

An upper level disturbance is headed our way. It’ll combine with the approaching low-pressure system to spread periods of light rain through much of the northern half of Minnesota and parts of northwestern Wisconsin Sunday afternoon. Periods of rain will continue in those areas Sunday evening and overnight. There could be a rain/snow mix in parts of far northern Minnesota at times. Far northwestern Minnesota could also see some spotty light freezing rain.

The daylight hours of Sunday are expected to be mainly dry in the southern half of Minnesota, but a brief sprinkle will be possible. The southern half of Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin could see patchy rain showers at times Sunday evening and overnight, but the best rain chances will remain in the northern half of Minnesota and into northwestern Wisconsin through Sunday night….mixed with snow in the far north.

Northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin will see some lingering precipitation Monday morning.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Finite Volume Cubed Sphere (FV3) forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern from 6 p.m. Sunday to noon on Monday:

NOAA’s North American Mesoscale model shows a similar precipitation pattern for the same time period:

You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the MPR News network. Also check out the MPR News display of National Weather Service radar.

I should note that much of what you see on radar today in southern and central Minnesota will not be reaching the ground.

You can also check these National Weather Service sites for updated weather info: Twin Cities, Duluth, La Crosse, Wis., Sioux Falls, S.D., and Grand Forks, N.D.

Temperature trends

The average Twin Cities high temperature is 47 degrees this time of year. Many spots in the metro area will top out in the upper 50s this afternoon. An isolated 60 is possible.

Sunday high temps will be in the 40s in much of the northern half of Minnesota. There will be a lot of 50s elsewhere in Minnesota plus western Wisconsin, with 60s in southwestern Minnesota and parts of south-central Minnesota.

Monday high temps will be in the 50s in the southern third of Minnesota, with 40s and 30s to the north:

Tuesday high temps range from 30s in northern Minnesota to 50s in the far south:

Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach the upper 40s on Tuesday, followed by lower 50s Wednesday then mid 40s Thursday and lower 40s on Friday.

High temps next weekend could be slightly below normal, then temps rebound the following week. The NWS Climate Prediction Center shows strong tendency for above-normal temps in Minnesota and Wisconsin from Nov. 12 through Nov. 18:

Weather nugget

Twin Cities sunset is at 4:56 p.m. today. The U.S. Naval Observatory’s sunset table shows that the earliest sunset in Minneapolis this year is at 4:31 p.m. Central Standard Time on Dec. 9 through Dec. 11.  The latest Minneapolis sunset this year was at 9:04 p.m. Central Daylight Time, during the final 8 days of June.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.