November will likely be Minnesota's 7th straight warmer-than-average month

Minnesota has recorded a string of six straight warmer-than-average months starting in May. Will we make it seven in a row this month? The medium-range forecast models suggest we just might pull it off.

The weather maps can do just about anything in November. We’ve seen some of our biggest early-season snowfall events this time of year. But we also get tranquil November mild spells that seem to milk out the last of warmth from the summer that was.

This week’s weather maps look pretty typical for November. Highs in the 30s north and 40s south are typical for Minnesota this week.

But let’s fast-forward to next week for a minute. The upper-air pattern across North America strongly favors a run of unseasonably mild days next week. Note the persistent warm (red) tones across central North America next week.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model looks reasonable early next week in forecasting highs well into the 50s across southern Minnesota with nights holding in the balmy-for-November 40s.

Keep in mind the average high and low for the Twin Cities next Monday are 43 and 29 degrees. So these temperatures would run between 10 and 20 degrees warmer than average for mid-November.

Most forecast models suggest the warmth will linger through most of next week. NOAA’s eight to 14-day temperature outlook strongly favors warmer-than-average temperatures across our region next week.

I think we have a shot at 60 degrees once again for southern Minnesota and the Twin Cities again next week. We hit 60 degrees in the southwest Twin Cities on Sunday.

And NOAA’s outlook for weeks three and four shows a mild bias through the end of November.

So even though we had an earlier-than-average first inch of snowfall this year last week, it appears winter is in no hurry to get established early this November.

Stay tuned.