White Thanksgiving possible next week?
Mild November continues; forecast models show signs of Thanksgiving snow
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Our balmy autumn has had a great run this year as we move deeper into November. Monday’s high of 57 degrees in the Twin Cities is perfectly average for Nov. 13 — for Kansas City, Mo.
But we know the snow will come eventually. This week is winter weather hazard awareness week in Minnesota and Wisconsin.
November is the time of year when upper-air patterns in the Northern Hemisphere change more quickly. Colder, subfreezing air can race southward unabated from the Arctic Circle across the relatively flat geography of central North America and into Minnesota.
Cold air first
To get snow in Minnesota, we need a deeper layer of subfreezing air.
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Watch how the upper-air pattern across North America changes between today and next Tuesday. This week’s mild air dome aloft gives way to a deeper colder low-pressure cell aloft diving into Minnesota by next Tuesday.
That should set the table for potential snow with temperatures in the 30s more common in the Upper Midwest by next week.
Thanksgiving week snow?
The Canadian, European, and American models all show a possible snow system diving through Minnesota about next Tuesday or Wednesday. Here’s the Canadian model solution:
It’s still too early to pinpoint timing and possible snowfall totals around Minnesota. It’s also early enough that the possible system the forecast models are picking up could miss Minnesota or vanish.
In case you are wondering, the odds of a white Thanksgiving in the Twin Cities is about 1 in 3 years according to the Minnesota State Climatology Office.
Historically, about one in three Thanksgivings have at least one inch of snow on the ground. The deepest snow pack is a tie with 1921 and 1983, both with 10 inches on the ground by Turkey Day.
Measurable snow fell on 29 of the past Thanksgivings back to 1884, about every five years or so. The most snow that fell on Thanksgiving was five inches in 1970. The last time there was measurable snow on Thanksgiving was in 2015 with 1.3 inches of snow.
It occasionally rains on Thanksgiving Day as well. In 1896, a two-day event in the Twin Cities doused Thanksgiving travelers with nearly three inches of rain.
Northern Minnesota has a better than 50 percent chance of at least an inch of snow on the ground on Thanksgiving morning.
Stay tuned.
